233 Alpine Crst · Fancy Gap, VA 24328

$210,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 282 Days on market

Built 1976 1.03 ac lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom, one and a half bath cottage located approx. 1/2 mile from the Blue Ridge Parkway. Choose the sunshine on the open front deck or the shade on the covered rear deck depending on your mood or the weather. When the weather turns a bit chilly all can be cured by the wood stove insert in the large stone-faced fireplace. With 3 full bedrooms there is plenty of room for all and the half bath on the upper level adds to the convenience. This property is located just off the Blue Ridge Parkway between Meadows of Dan, VA and Fancy Gap VA. Olde Mill Golf Resort is only 6.5 miles away and both Hillsville, VA and Mt. Airy, NC are just a short drive away.

Key facts

• Covered rear deck
• Open front deck
• Wood stove insert

Tags

• OPEN FRONT DECK
• COVERED REAR DECK
• WOOD STOVE INSERT
• STONE-FACED FIREPLACE
• LOCATED OFF BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY
• NEAR OLDE MILL GOLF RESORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Alpine Crest subdivision; Zoning: R
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $400 (about $33.33/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Masonite siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built on a 1.03-acre lot
• Exterior features: Deck; Cleared lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Fancy Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#515 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gladesboro Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 106 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,119 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,792
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8106 Snake Creek Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (+1%)	19mo	$100,000	$99	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $29,446
• Equity at exit: $92,640

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $98,548
• Equity at exit: $141,397

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24328

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $152	+0% $93	+5% $33	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $25	+0% $93	+5% $161	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $146	base $93	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 262 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    price $210,000
17. 2025-09-10
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,181/yr (+$98/mo · 218.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$602
• After-tax cash flow: $1,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fancy Gap

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #23081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 168.5656
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $210,000 SWVAR
• 2025-09-10 Listed $215,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.