2265 E Celosia Way · Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$342,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1993 5,619 sqft lot $287/sqft · 16% below area Est $409k · 16% under $205/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Light and bright Mariposa split bedroom model has a covered rear patio and nicely landscaped yard. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, farm house sink, pantry, breakfast bar and nook. The spacious family room has high ceilings and lots of natural light. The laundry room has cabinets and utility sink. The bedrooms have new flooring & the owners suite boats walk-in shower & walk-in closet. Lifestyle amenities include: aquatic & fitness center, artisan center, bocce courts, gift shop, the views golf club, pickle and tennis courts, restaurant, mini golf and activity center.

Key facts

• Covered rear patio
• Farm house sink
• Utility sink

Tags

• COVERED REAR PATIO
• NICELY LANDSCAPED YARD
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FARM HOUSE SINK
• BREAKFAST BAR
• UTILITY SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,862 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,648
• List price: $342,000
• Delta: -16.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2246 E Amaranth St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,190 (0%)	3mo	$355,000	$298	89
14109 N Forthcamp Ct	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,190 (0%)	1mo	$351,000	$295	87
2247 E Jonquil St	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,298 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$250	75
2289 E Celosia Way	0.02mi	2/1.0	1,093 (-8%)	3mo	$330,000	$302	75
14301 N Trade Winds Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,093 (-8%)	2mo	$360,000	$329	70
14268 N Trade Winds Way	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,093 (-8%)	3mo	$320,000	$293	70
2255 E Montrose Canyon Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,221 (+3%)	3mo	$345,000	$283	67
2293 E Sausalito Trl	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,221 (+3%)	4mo	$300,000	$246	61
13949 N Desert Butte Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,190 (0%)	6mo	$360,000	$303	61
1735 E Broken Bow Way	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+12%)	6mo	$340,000	$256	51
1661 E Mingus Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,304 (+10%)	6mo	$360,000	$276	50
1629 E Broken Bow Way	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+12%)	4mo	$310,000	$233	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-46,130
• Equity at exit: $50,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-28,156
• Equity at exit: $29,570

Cash invested: $95,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85755

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,793
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,126/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $342,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $242	+0% $146	+5% $49	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $22	+0% $146	+5% $269	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $233	base $146	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,500
• Closing costs: $10,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14274 N Trade Winds Way Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1499	$4,000	$2.67	44d	1	0.20mi
14269 N Trade Winds Way Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1190	$2,750	$2.31	44d	1	0.22mi
14248 N Cirrus Hill Dr Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1499	$3,800	$2.54	44d	1	0.24mi
13385 N Vistoso Bluff Pl Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,795	$1.42	24d	1	1.14mi
13299 N Wide View Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,950	$1.97	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $342,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $342,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $342,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $342,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $342,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $342,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $342,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $342,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $342,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $342,000 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Light and bright Mariposa split bedroom model has a covered rear patio and nicely landscaped yard. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, farm house sink, pantry, breakfast bar and nook. The spacious family room has high ceilings and lots of natural light. The laundry room has cabinets and utility sink. The bedrooms have new flooring & the owners suite boats walk-in shower & walk-in closet. Lifestyle amenities include: aquatic & fitness center, artisan center, bocce courts, gift shop, the views golf club, pickle and tennis courts, restaurant, mini golf and activity center.

16. 2026-04-19
    historical
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $344,000 Active
18. 2026-04-16
    historical
19. 2026-03-24
    price $344,900
20. 2026-03-09
    status Active
21. 2026-03-03
    historical Active Contingent
22. 2026-02-02
    price $349,000
23. 2026-01-04
    listed $359,000 Active
24. 2025-02-26
    soldstatus $353,000 Closed
25. 2025-02-26
    soldstatus $353,000
26. 2025-02-11
    status Pending
27. 2025-01-28
    historical Active Contingent
28. 2025-01-20
    price $360,000
29. 2024-12-27
    listed $375,000 Active
30. 2022-02-22
    status Pending
31. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $335,000 Closed
32. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $335,000
33. 2022-01-21
    historical Active Contingent
34. 2022-01-20
    listed $325,000 Active
35. 1993-02-23
    soldstatus $97,652

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,257 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,157
• − Property taxes: −$2,126
• − Insurance: −$1,710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,994
• − Management: −$2,994
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$9,949
• Taxable loss: −$3,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $2,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,560
• Household income: $113,831
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 211.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.99%
• Current HPI: 254.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+250.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $342,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-17 Listed $344,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $344,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $349,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-04 Listed $359,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $353,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-26 Sold (MLS) $353,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-11 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-28 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $360,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-27 Listed $375,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-22 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-22 Sold (MLS) $335,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-21 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-20 Listed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 1993-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $97,652 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,126 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.