7928 Black Tern Dr · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$137,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,879 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2004 6,400 sqft lot Est $210k · 35% under $285/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1000.00 minimum, whichever is greater. All Financed offers require 1% EMD or 1000.00 min, whichever is greater. The seller does not accept blind offers.

Key facts

• 6,400 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Land lease in place with monthly fee of $655 (lease expires 2027-05-13)
• HOA & community: Part of Savanna Club association; Monthly association fee of $285 includes common area maintenance and recreation facility; Community amenities: fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, community room, on-site manager, maintained community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces (covered) and additional driveway parking — total 3 parking spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Resale property; Faces south
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story structure
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened porch; Patio; Porch; Back yard fence; Interior lot; Private road frontage; Asphalt road surface; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($884/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,890 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7808 Horned Lark Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,904 (+1%)	7mo	$244,900	$129	80
2968 Eagles Nest Way	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-5%)	8mo	$199,999	$112	66
7822 White Ibis Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-14%)	2mo	$115,000	$71	64
7917 Horned Lark Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,915 (+2%)	22mo	$250,000	$131	63
7728 Mcclintock Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,692 (-10%)	11mo	$185,000	$109	63
8112 Long Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-5%)	19mo	$122,000	$68	63
2948 Eagles Nest Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-5%)	15mo	$125,000	$70	58
2847 Eagles Nest Way	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (-4%)	24mo	$279,000	$154	52
2852 Eagles Nest Way	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,724 (-8%)	22mo	$165,000	$96	49
7707 Mcclintock Way	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,609 (-14%)	19mo	$160,000	$99	47
3720 Pebble Bch	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-14%)	3mo	$225,000	$140	41
3815 Sandlace Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,641 (-13%)	16mo	$190,000	$116	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-19,236
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,631
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,555/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,823

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $112	+0% $74	+5% $35	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-2	+0% $74	+5% $149	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $109	base $74	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	1.14mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	15d	1	1.41mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	15d	1	1.43mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	24d	1	1.43mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	15d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $137,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $144,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,000 Active 16 DOM
19. 2026-05-16
    price $175,000
20. 2026-05-11
    listed $190,000 Active
21. 2026-05-04
    historical
22. 2026-03-09
    price $190,000
23. 2026-02-03
    listed $200,000 Active
24. 2024-02-08
    historical
25. 2023-12-28
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,555 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,555 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$4,555
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable loss: −$1,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$241
• After-tax cash flow: $1,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-32.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $175,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $190,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $190,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $200,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-08 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-12-28 Listed $260,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,555 · +339.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.