3010 Bee Cave Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$175,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 179 Days on market

Built 1978 1,616 sqft lot $116/sqft · 11% below area Est $197k · 11% under $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move In Ready......well-kept, 3-bedroom 3 BATH, high ceilings throughout the living Area, one bedroom on the first floor, GRANITE countertops, Laminate/wood ON all Bedrooms, tile floors on Kitchen, WATER included. T/H is located just minutes away from Hwy 6, Quail Valley Golf Course, community POOL CLUBHOUSE, Green Space AND MUCH MORE.

Key facts

• Green space
• Tile floors
• High ceilings

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORS
• COMMUNITY POOL CLUBHOUSE
• GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 10194% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,065
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -11.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2222 Saint James Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+1%)	13mo	$250,000	$165	68
2610 Creekway Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+5%)	4mo	$219,900	$140	65
2914 Creekway Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+8%)	10mo	$167,000	$103	65
2211 Cottonwood Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+11%)	7mo	$233,400	$139	61
2207 Cottonwood Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+13%)	4mo	$225,000	$132	61
2203 Cottonwood Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+13%)	17mo	$237,000	$140	50
2623 Quail Valley East Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+5%)	12mo	$225,000	$142	45
2407 Bradford Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+12%)	15mo	$194,711	$115	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,894
• Equity at exit: $36,703

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,764
• Equity at exit: $33,995

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,796/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	24d	1	0.43mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	0.55mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	12d	1	0.66mi
2608 Grand Plantation Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	12d	1	1.08mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	1.12mi
1800 FM 1092 Rd Missouri City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,774	$2.00	2d	31	1.18mi
1547 Revolution Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,300	$1.37	12d	1	1.18mi
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	19d	1	1.23mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	20d	1	1.26mi
1620 Good Day Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,790	$1.31	43d	1	1.29mi
1420 Revolution Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1649	$2,250	$1.36	43d	1	1.30mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	12d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-04-07
    price $175,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Move In Ready......well-kept, 3-bedroom 3 BATH, high ceilings throughout the living Area, one bedroom on the first floor, GRANITE countertops, Laminate/wood ON all Bedrooms, tile floors on Kitchen, WATER included. T/H is located just minutes away from Hwy 6, Quail Valley Golf Course, community POOL CLUBHOUSE, Green Space AND MUCH MORE.

14. 2026-03-15
    listed $1,700
15. 2026-01-19
    price $187,500 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Move In Ready......well-kept, 3-bedroom 3 BATH, high ceilings throughout the living Area, one bedroom on the first floor, GRANITE countertops, Laminate/wood ON all Bedrooms, tile floors on Kitchen, WATER included. T/H is located just minutes away from Hwy 6, Quail Valley Golf Course, community POOL CLUBHOUSE, Green Space AND MUCH MORE.

16. 2025-12-21
    listed $195,000 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Move In Ready......well-kept, 3-bedroom 3 BATH, high ceilings throughout the living Area, one bedroom on the first floor, GRANITE countertops, Laminate/wood ON all Bedrooms, tile floors on Kitchen, WATER included. T/H is located just minutes away from Hwy 6, Quail Valley Golf Course, community POOL CLUBHOUSE, Green Space AND MUCH MORE.

17. 2018-12-10
    status Pending
18. 2018-12-10
    listed $1,300 Active
19. 2018-12-10
    historical
20. 2018-05-14
    soldstatus
21. 2018-05-14
    soldstatus
22. 2018-05-09
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2018-03-30
    status Pending
24. 2018-03-20
    status Option Pending
25. 2018-02-28
    listed $105,000 Active
26. 1995-05-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,796 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,796 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,796
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $3,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $187,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-12-10 Listed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2018-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-28 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 1995-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,796 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.