5 Joe D Dr Unit 5A · Hortonville, NY 12723

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Condo public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1996 $170/sqft · at area comps Est $189k · at est. $270/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Beechwoods Estates at Villa Roma Resort! Here is a desrable ground floor 2 bedroom, 2 bath condominium in excellent, move-in condition. Sellers cherished their years of ownership and the time has come for a younger generation to enjoy all 4 seasons in the Sullivan County Catskills and its premier Villa Roma Resort in the Delaware River valley in western Sullivan County. Included in the purchase price is a time share week with a yearly maintenance fee of $1487 enabling the new owners to take advantage of all amenities the Resort offers such as indoor and outdoor pools, tennis, etc. And of course, there is the gorgeous golf course! Come and take a look! Sellers will make it easy for you to spend your first night of ownership at your new vacation home!

Key facts

• Tennis
• Gorgeous golf course
• Ground floor

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• TENNIS
• GORGEOUS GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#578 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,092
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 3.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $111,339
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $324,468
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12723

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,480/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $132	+0% $77	+5% $22	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-10	+0% $77	+5% $164	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $127	base $77	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $195,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-04-20
    listed $195,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome to Beechwoods Estates at Villa Roma Resort! Here is a desrable ground floor 2 bedroom, 2 bath condominium in excellent, move-in condition. Sellers cherished their years of ownership and the time has come for a younger generation to enjoy all 4 seasons in the Sullivan County Catskills and its premier Villa Roma Resort in the Delaware River valley in western Sullivan County. Included in the purchase price is a time share week with a yearly maintenance fee of $1487 enabling the new owners to take advantage of all amenities the Resort offers such as indoor and outdoor pools, tennis, etc. And of course, there is the gorgeous golf course! Come and take a look! Sellers will make it easy for you to spend your first night of ownership at your new vacation home!

12. 2011-09-21
    soldstatus $140,000
13. 1994-03-14
    soldstatus $74,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,480
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$499
• After-tax cash flow: $1,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hortonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #578
• US rank: #10444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,854

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 64.22%
• Current HPI: 339.0364
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+160.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $74,999 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,480 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.