5644 Belle Ave · Baltimore, MD 21207

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1953 4,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick semi-detached home with great potential. The main level features a welcoming front porch, living room, dining room, and kitchen. The upper level includes three bedrooms and a full bathroom. The full basement includes a half bath and provides ample space for storage or future finishing. Enjoy a fenced-in yard, perfect for outdoor activities or gardening. Conveniently located near major shopping and dining, Gwynn Oak Park, public transportation, and with easy access to I-695 and Route 40 for commuting. Property is Owned by the US Dept. of HUD. Case Number 241-802520 IE. HUD Homes are Sold “As-Is”. Pre-1978 Properties to include LBP Notices. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller

Key facts

• Built 1953
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.06%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5528 Belle Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (-8%)	2mo	$268,000	$181	71
4703 Post Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	9mo	$275,000	$172	66
5561 Kennison Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,395 (-13%)	1mo	$142,000	$102	66
5527 Belle Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-10%)	6mo	$125,000	$87	64
5554 Elderon Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-7%)	14mo	$228,500	$153	63
5573 Elderon Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-7%)	22mo	$235,000	$158	59
4411 Belvieu Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+6%)	4mo	$190,000	$112	56
3716 Howard Park Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+5%)	13mo	$205,000	$122	55
3435 Flannery Ln	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,536 (-4%)	2mo	$150,000	$98	54
4805 Wilvan Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-10%)	14mo	$152,000	$106	47
3707 N Rogers Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-13%)	19mo	$249,900	$180	45
5612 Stonington Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (+6%)	8mo	$265,000	$156	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 5.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $107,154
• Equity at exit: $103,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.71×
• Total profit: $292,806
• Equity at exit: $219,272

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21207

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,363/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $714	-5% $680	+0% $646	+5% $612	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $565	+0% $646	+5% $726	+10% $806
Rate	-1.0pp $706	-0.5pp $676	base $646	+0.5pp $615	+1.0pp $583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.15mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	0.54mi
6226 Robin Hill Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,850	$2.50	17d	1	0.76mi
5533 Gwynn Oak Ave Fl 1 Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	44d	1	0.94mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.95mi
3912 Mortimer Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,723	$2.26	44d	1	1.04mi
6609 Eberle Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,787	$1.77	2d	25	1.11mi
5807 Gist Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	2100	$1,395	$0.66	24d	1	1.14mi
3709 Fords Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	2248	$3,200	$1.42	21d	1	1.28mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	15d	15	1.30mi
3809 Clarks Ln Unit 301 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,600	$1.51	24d	1	1.35mi
3914 Maine Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2127	$1,150	$0.54	44d	1	1.37mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.39mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	24d	1	1.39mi
6936 Blanche Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1410	$1,800	$1.28	44d	1	1.41mi
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	1.43mi
6463 Woodgreen Cir Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	2.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	18d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,363 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,363 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,363
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $6,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,099
• Household income: $67,060
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 843.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,363 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.