1328 Ashland Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$74,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1900 3,123 sqft lot $53/sqft · 17% below area Est $90k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is located in AirBNB zone with full of potential. Great location, just minutes from the majestic Niagara Falls. It offers a spacious layout, classic charm. Whether you're a first-time buyer or investor, this is an opportunity you don't want to miss!

Key facts

• 3,123 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story frame house; Existing construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Flag lot; Near public transit; Lot dimensions approximately 28 x 111

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater (appliance present)
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8 (includes Living Room and Bonus Room)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Has utilities connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harry F Abate Elementary School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,909 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 695 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,430/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.03%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,326
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -17.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1013 13th St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (-4%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	83
1327 Willow Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,444 (+3%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	80
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (0%)	4mo	$115,000	$82	80
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (-8%)	4mo	$85,000	$65	68
749 16th St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-6%)	4mo	$117,000	$89	67
628 20th St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-6%)	2mo	$115,000	$87	56
1870 South Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-6%)	0mo	$116,000	$88	54
1307 Niagara Ave	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,536 (+9%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	54
435 13th St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	52
1329 Niagara Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,540 (+9%)	2mo	$85,000	$55	52
1739 Lockport St	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,598 (+14%)	4mo	$120,000	$75	50
2233 South Ave	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,553 (+10%)	3mo	$155,000	$100	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $84,055
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.36×
• Total profit: $238,324
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,753/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $722

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $581	+0% $560	+5% $539	+10% $517
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $503	+0% $560	+5% $616	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $579	base $560	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	5d	1	0.13mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	25d	1	0.19mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.24mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	18d	1	0.47mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.50mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	5d	1	0.55mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	45d	1	0.65mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.99mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	12d	1	1.13mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	3d	1	1.17mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	1.36mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.41mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $74,900 Active 304-char remark
17. 2025-11-05
    status Active
18. 2025-11-05
    price $74,900
19. 2025-05-11
    price $79,900
20. 2025-05-08
    listed $74,900 Active
21. 2019-05-09
    status Pending Sale
22. 2019-05-09
    status Active
23. 2019-05-02
    historical
24. 2019-04-21
    historical
25. 2019-03-20
    status Active
26. 2019-02-26
    status Pending Sale
27. 2019-02-25
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
28. 2018-10-21
    listed $37,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,753
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,419
• After-tax cash flow: $5,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-05-09 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-05-02 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-03-20 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-02-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-02-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-10-21 Listed $37,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,753 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.