3551 Lampkin Dr · Morristown, TN 37814

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1966 0.60 ac lot Est $305k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make certain that your company/broker has a NAID#, which is required to bid on HUD properties. Case #481-314880 online bidding @ www. hudpemco.com All info to be verified by buyer

Key facts

• Large basement
• Spacious carport
• Level corner lot

Tags

• LEVEL CORNER LOT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LARGE BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($872/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Morristown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hamblen County (urban): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #57 of 139 in TN (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 330 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Hamblen County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $230k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,031 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,250
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3646 Falcon Road Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	3mo	$344,100	$254	78
3813 Old Kentucky Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+3%)	14mo	$314,900	$222	66
4146 Leslie Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,431 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$192	52
1624 Elgin Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+9%)	16mo	$390,000	$259	39
3301 Lake Forest Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,229 (-11%)	24mo	$199,900	$163	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,728
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,963
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37814

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $138	+0% $73	+5% $8	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $0	+0% $73	+5% $145	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $131	base $73	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3383 Mill Wheel Rd Morristown, TN	3.0	1.0	912	$1,650	$1.81	21d	1	0.83mi
3113 Berna Way Morristown, TN	3.0	2.5	1482	$2,300	$1.55	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   price $229,900
3. 2026-01-31
   listed $239,900 Active
4. 2013-07-22
   soldstatus $75,600 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Make certain that your company/broker has a NAID#, which is required to bid on HUD properties. Case #481-314880 online bidding @ www. hudpemco.com All info to be verified by buyer

5. 1986-10-28
   soldstatus $34,000
6. 1985-01-01
   soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 89.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
• After-tax cash flow: $1,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamblen County
• NCES district ID: 4700001
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,361
• Composite: 25.61/100
• National rank: #7412
• State rank: #57 of 139 in TN

Livability — Morristown

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #14625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hamblen County · 35,239 people
• City population: 35,239
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• Population (ZIP): 35,239
• Household income: $55,650
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Hamblen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,185 people
• By 2030: 65,707 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 66,189 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 65,798 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 62,642 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 55,702 · -14.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamblen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.1% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+46.4 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.88%
• Current HPI: 299.6486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+467.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $229,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-31 Listed $239,900 LAAR
• 2013-07-22 Sold (MLS) $75,600 GSMAR
• 1986-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $862 · +58.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.