6009 Venita Ave · Lubbock, TX 79407

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 5,175 sqft lot $147/sqft · 10% below area Est $278k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Covered entryway
• Brick exterior

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• CEDAR ACCENTS
• COVERED ENTRYWAY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $188,941 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,298
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -1.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-60,990
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-93,670
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $215,986

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6003 Venita Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	0.01mi
5865 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,749	$1.17	43d	1	0.09mi
5805 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,800	$1.31	43d	1	0.23mi
1517 Westminister Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,600	$1.03	13d	1	0.95mi
5014 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,800	$1.26	21d	1	1.02mi
1218 Preston TRL Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,500	$1.06	21d	1	1.07mi
7036 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	21d	1	1.40mi
7022 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	43d	1	1.46mi
7024 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	43d	1	1.46mi
6140 71st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,550	$1.15	13d	1	1.48mi
816 N 4th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $250,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   price $250,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $273,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $273,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $273,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $273,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $273,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $273,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $273,000 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

17. 2026-05-04
    status Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

18. 2026-04-29
    historical 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

19. 2026-04-16
    status Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

20. 2026-04-16
    historical 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

21. 2026-04-13
    price $279,700 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

22. 2026-03-05
    price $273,700 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

23. 2026-02-27
    price $273,655 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

24. 2026-02-12
    price $271,855 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

25. 2026-02-04
    status Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

26. 2026-02-04
    historical 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

27. 2026-02-03
    price $264,855 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

28. 2025-12-29
    listed $264,785 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The 1,700 square-foot Penny floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,231
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $273,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $279,700 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $273,700 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $273,655 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $271,855 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $264,855 Zillow
• 2025-12-29 Listed $264,785 Zillow