1378 Jefferson St · Cadiz, KY 42211

$72,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1955 $74/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute starter or downsize home on . 58 +/- acre site just inside the City Limits. Close to Lake Barkley, Land Between the Lakes National Recreation Area, Boots Randolf Golf Course, I-24 just a few miles North or East. 20 x 20 Detached Carport. Covered Rear Patio with Hot Tub Connection Wiring in place.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 2-car carport
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• 2-CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Gravel parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window cooling units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,920 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.45%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,027
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -54.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
89 Sherry St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,020 (+5%)	8mo	$156,600	$154	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $41,258
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $104,113
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $605

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $872	-5% $851	+0% $831	+5% $810	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $700	-5% $765	+0% $831	+5% $896	+10% $962
Rate	-1.0pp $867	-0.5pp $849	base $831	+0.5pp $812	+1.0pp $793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-23
   listed $72,000 Active 444-char remark
2. 2025-08-21
   price $110,400
3. 2025-08-15
   price $112,400
4. 2025-08-08
   price $115,400
5. 2025-08-01
   price $117,400
6. 2025-07-25
   price $119,400
7. 2025-07-14
   price $121,400
8. 2025-07-03
   price $122,400
9. 2025-06-20
   price $124,400
10. 2025-06-13
    listed $125,000 Active
11. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $97,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Cute starter or downsize home on . 58 +/- acre site just inside the City Limits. Close to Lake Barkley, Land Between the Lakes National Recreation Area, Boots Randolf Golf Course, I-24 just a few miles North or East. 20 x 20 Detached Carport. Covered Rear Patio with Hot Tub Connection Wiring in place.

12. 2023-05-24
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Cute starter or downsize home on . 58 +/- acre site just inside the City Limits. Close to Lake Barkley, Land Between the Lakes National Recreation Area, Boots Randolf Golf Course, I-24 just a few miles North or East. 20 x 20 Detached Carport. Covered Rear Patio with Hot Tub Connection Wiring in place.

13. 2023-05-22
    listed $99,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Cute starter or downsize home on . 58 +/- acre site just inside the City Limits. Close to Lake Barkley, Land Between the Lakes National Recreation Area, Boots Randolf Golf Course, I-24 just a few miles North or East. 20 x 20 Detached Carport. Covered Rear Patio with Hot Tub Connection Wiring in place.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $9,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $7,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cadiz, KY
• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-27.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HCTCBOR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $72,000 HCTCBOR
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $110,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $112,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $115,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $117,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $119,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $121,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $122,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $124,400 WKRMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $125,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $97,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-05-24 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $99,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $845 · +121.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.