16 Jacobs Walk · Lakeland, GA 31635

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2004 0.50 ac lot Est $224k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

If you've been trying to find a home with land, extra storage, and no major repairs waiting on you take a look at this one. 16 Jacobs Walk in Lakeland sits on a half-acre lot and offers a clean, functional setup that's getting harder to come by. Inside, you've got a 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with around 1,425 square feet that actually works. Open living space where you need it, with enough separation to make it livable day to day. The biggest win here is already handled — a new roof installed in 2023. That's one of the main concerns buyers walk in with, and it's already off the table. Step out back and you'll find a spacious screened-in porch — the kind of space you'll actually u

Key facts

• 10x12 outbuilding
• Half-acre lot
• Screened-in porch

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• 10X12 OUTBUILDING
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#379 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lanier County (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 174 in GA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Lanier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $176k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,942 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,725
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Jacobs Walk	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,425 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$158	99
16 Ridge Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	6mo	$208,000	$147	89
44 Jacobs Walk	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+2%)	0mo	$195,000	$134	89
44 Jacobs Walk #12	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+2%)	0mo	$195,000	$134	89
38 Jacob's Walk	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+1%)	10mo	$226,000	$157	85
25 Smith Dairy Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	1mo	$245,000	$173	83
25 Smith Dairy Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	1mo	$245,000	$173	83
20 Ridge Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+9%)	2mo	$239,150	$154	78
9 Smith Dairy Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,523 (+7%)	2mo	$257,000	$169	77
531 Boyette Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+15%)	3mo	$245,000	$150	60
5 Ridge Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+12%)	22mo	$219,000	$137	55
47 Ridge Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-13%)	23mo	$205,000	$166	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $34,796
• Equity at exit: $119,683

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $117,243
• Equity at exit: $200,362

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31635

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $198,166

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Active
3. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $225,000 Active
5. 2022-01-19
   soldstatus $176,500
6. 2022-01-14
   soldstatus $176,500
7. 2021-11-04
   listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lanier County
• NCES district ID: 1303240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,019
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #6476
• State rank: #67 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #19151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,978

Population outlook (Lanier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,743 people
• By 2030: 10,892 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 10,975 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 10,764 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 9,418 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 7,419 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lanier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.6% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Current HPI: 201.1664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+32.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $225,000 SGMLS
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $176,500 Public Records
• 2022-01-14 Sold (MLS) $176,500 SGMLS
• 2021-11-04 Listed $169,900 SGMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,175 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.