3022 Summerhill Pl · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$52,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Condo public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1985 $111/sqft · at area comps Est $52k · at est. $300/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the ultimate in serene living with this exquisite Summer Hill Place condo, perfectly nestled amidst the lush canopy of the Ozark Mountains. This recently updated studio offers a seamless blend of modern elegance and nature’s tranquility. Step inside to discover a beautifully refreshed interior, boasting new floors and a fresh coat of paint, complemented by stylish furnishings that invite you to settle in immediately. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, the studio features a cozy sleeping area, a sleek bathroom with a rejuvenating shower, and a well-appointed kitchenette that makes meal preparation a pleasure. A stackable washer and dryer provide added convenience for everyday living. For moments of relaxation, step out onto your private back deck and lose yourself in the serene views of the surrounding woods. Enhance your lifestyle with access to an array of resort-style amenities right at your doorstep. Dive into any of the three sparkling pools, perfect your swing at the two beautifully maintained golf courses, or explore the pristine waters of nearby Greers Ferry Lake. Plus, enjoy all the vibrant recreational and cultural offerings of Fairfield Bay.

Key facts

• Private back deck
• Serene views
• $300 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• THREE SPARKLING POOLS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHENETTE
• STACKABLE WASHER AND DRYER
• SERENE VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $112 of equity ($360 loan paydown + $-248 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $45,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.67%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,000
• List price: $52,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $29,705
• Equity at exit: $13,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $73,596
• Equity at exit: $15,725

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $198/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $773

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $520	+0% $506	+5% $491	+10% $476
Rent	-10% $394	-5% $450	+0% $506	+5% $561	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $519	base $506	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $52,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $52,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $52,000 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $52,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $52,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $52,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2025-12-14
    listed $52,000 New Listing 1198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1198 chars)

    Experience the ultimate in serene living with this exquisite Summer Hill Place condo, perfectly nestled amidst the lush canopy of the Ozark Mountains. This recently updated studio offers a seamless blend of modern elegance and nature’s tranquility. Step inside to discover a beautifully refreshed interior, boasting new floors and a fresh coat of paint, complemented by stylish furnishings that invite you to settle in immediately. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, the studio features a cozy sleeping area, a sleek bathroom with a rejuvenating shower, and a well-appointed kitchenette that makes meal preparation a pleasure. A stackable washer and dryer provide added convenience for everyday living. For moments of relaxation, step out onto your private back deck and lose yourself in the serene views of the surrounding woods. Enhance your lifestyle with access to an array of resort-style amenities right at your doorstep. Dive into any of the three sparkling pools, perfect your swing at the two beautifully maintained golf courses, or explore the pristine waters of nearby Greers Ferry Lake. Plus, enjoy all the vibrant recreational and cultural offerings of Fairfield Bay.

13. 2025-12-13
    historical
14. 2025-10-25
    price $52,000
15. 2025-06-12
    listed $54,000 New Listing
16. 2025-06-07
    historical
17. 2025-05-28
    price $54,000
18. 2024-12-06
    listed $58,000 New Listing
19. 2024-09-12
    historical $800
20. 2024-08-30
    listed $800
21. 2024-08-30
    historical $800
22. 2024-08-23
    listed $800
23. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 2022-05-23
    soldstatus $31,000
25. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $31,000
26. 2022-04-14
    listed $33,500
27. 2021-06-29
    historical
28. 2021-06-25
    listed $32,000 New Listing
29. 2020-01-10
    soldstatus $13,000 Sold
30. 2019-12-30
    status Under Contract
31. 2019-11-01
    listed $15,500 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $198 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $333 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 68.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$198
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $5,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $4,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+235.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-14 Listed $52,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $52,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $54,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-07 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $54,000 CARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $58,000 CARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Rental Removed $800 CARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed for Rent $800 CARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Rental Removed $800 CARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listed for Rent $800 CARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-09 Sold (MLS) $31,000 CARMLS
• 2022-04-14 Listed $33,500 CARMLS
• 2021-06-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Listed $32,000 CARMLS
• 2020-01-10 Sold (MLS) $13,000 CARMLS
• 2019-12-30 Pending — CARMLS
• 2019-11-01 Listed $15,500 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $198 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.