20 N Oakwood Trl · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1933 5,400 sqft lot $342/sqft · 30% above area Est $144k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nature Lovers Paradise! 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Cottage, 550 Sq. Ft. Good Condition, Recently Painted, Two Living Room Skylights. Washer-Dryer in Unit. Near the top of Schunnemunk Mt. , Nice Views. Very Private Area. Great Hiking Area, thousands of acres of NY State, preserved land at this location. Baseboard, Gas Heat system and wood stove to heat home. Propane works for stove and boiler. Large Deck. Previously Used as Year-Round Or Seasonal. Well for year-round water. One Lot, SBL 37-2-2.21, Approximately 60 x 186, (from plot plan. ) Oakwood is a Private Trail. Seller will consider OWNER FINANCING with 50% down. Please do not go unaccompanied. Rented Propane Tanks Excluded. Washingtownville Sch

Key facts

• Large deck
• Very private area
• Great hiking area

Tags

• TWO LIVING ROOM SKYLIGHTS
• VERY PRIVATE AREA
• GREAT HIKING AREA
• LARGE DECK
• WELL FOR YEAR-ROUND WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported from public records; Building updated/remodeled

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; Attached parking; Off-street parking; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Propane available/used; Electricity connected; Water available and connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half levels; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Built with frame construction; Basement: unfinished with storage space (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Back yard; Front yard; Hilly lot; Partially wooded; Wooded; Near public transit; Near shops; Near schools; See remarks regarding lot features; No fencing; No other structures; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Propane heating; Wood heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Galley-style kitchen; Open floor plan; Storage space; Washer/dryer hookup; Skylight(s); Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Washingtonville Middle School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #473 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 900 students, 35% FRL); Washingtonville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 89%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,318 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $190k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.71%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,467
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 31.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Oakwood Trl N	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	520 (-6%)	9mo	$205,000	$394	72
19 Arbor Trl	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	572 (+3%)	10mo	$77,000	$135	65
9 Higgins Trl	0.58mi	2/1.0	588 (+6%)	3mo	$130,000	$221	60
16 Stanton Trl	0.34mi	2/1.0	616 (+11%)	9mo	$105,000	$170	58
41 Laurel Trl	0.48mi	2/1.0	580 (+4%)	20mo	$130,000	$224	53
55 Orchard Trl	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (+8%)	10mo	$155,000	$258	46
6 Grandview Trl	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	637 (+15%)	22mo	$249,999	$392	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,426
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,601
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,471/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Woodland Cir S Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	13d	1	0.16mi
26 Oakwood Trl S Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	696	$1,750	$2.51	13d	1	0.17mi
11 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	1.0	1.0	682	$1,500	$2.20	13d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $190,000 Active 755-char remark
18. 2026-04-01
    historical
19. 2026-03-20
    status Active
20. 2026-03-17
    historical
21. 2025-11-23
    price $200,000
22. 2025-11-04
    price $207,500
23. 2025-10-24
    price $213,000
24. 2025-09-19
    listed $225,000 Active
25. 2025-09-16
    historical
26. 2025-09-12
    price $225,000
27. 2025-08-19
    historical $1,400
28. 2025-07-31
    price $239,900
29. 2025-07-25
    price $249,900
30. 2025-07-16
    price $275,000
31. 2025-07-09
    listed $325,000 Active
32. 2025-07-09
    listed $1,400
33. 2025-02-23
    historical $1,300
34. 2025-01-29
    price $1,300
35. 2025-01-16
    price $1,350
36. 2024-12-11
    price $1,400
37. 2024-12-04
    price $1,450
38. 2024-11-26
    listed $1,500
39. 2024-11-26
    historical $1,500
40. 2024-11-25
    price $1,500
41. 2024-11-15
    price $1,550
42. 2024-11-08
    listed $1,600
43. 2012-10-02
    soldstatus $38,000
44. 2009-12-18
    soldstatus $62,000
45. 2009-11-12
    soldstatus $62,000
46. 2009-09-08
    price $64,900
47. 2009-09-08
    historical
48. 2009-04-24
    listed $62,000
49. 2004-03-17
    soldstatus $122,500
50. 2004-01-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,471 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,471 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,471
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$420
• After-tax cash flow: $4,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1483.3% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $207,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $213,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Rental Removed $1,400 ONEKEY
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $239,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $249,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $1,400 ONEKEY
• 2025-02-23 Rental Removed $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $1,350 ONEKEY
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $1,400 ONEKEY
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $1,450 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-26 Listed for Rent $1,500 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-26 Rental Removed $1,500 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $1,500 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $1,550 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 ONEKEY
• 2012-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-12 Sold (MLS) $62,000 HGMLS
• 2009-09-08 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2009-09-08 Price Changed $64,900 HGMLS
• 2009-04-24 Listed $62,000 HGMLS
• 2004-03-17 Sold (MLS) $122,500 HGMLS
• 2004-01-30 Price Changed $139,000 HGMLS
• 2004-01-30 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-06-27 Listed $122,500 HGMLS
• 1987-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1984-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,471 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.