3645 Hawthorne Dr #104 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$198,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Est $168k · 18% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOME CLEAN UP NEEDED, FULLY ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH CLOSE TO POOL AND REC ROOM.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Clubhouse
• Community perks

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• UPDATED INTERIORS
• COMMUNITY PERKS
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• SCENIC DELTA WATERWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: The Willows community with clubhouse, pool, BBQ area, picnic area, recreation room with fireplace; Pet policies allow dogs and cats (restrictions and approvals apply); Guest parking and RV storage

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking available in community; RV storage in community
• Utilities: Seller-owned photovoltaics; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Aluminum and wood siding
• Exterior features: Enclosed, carpeted patio/porch with awning(s); Back yard; Low-maintenance yard; Shed(s); Close to clubhouse; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Dining area; Enclosed Florida / screen room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; 220V outlet; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $198k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iron House Elementary (496 students, 44% FRL); Delta Vista Middle (910 students, 40% FRL); Freedom High (2,527 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $198k implies a 761% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.11%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,552
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Alcott Ct #170	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$129,000	$96	86
3760 Porter Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	73
3621 Hawthorne Dr #110	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	19mo	$130,000	$90	73
3513 Alcott Cir #134	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,559 (+11%)	15mo	$195,000	$125	68
3757 Porter Cir #69	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	22mo	$80,000	$60	64
3764 Porter Cir #22	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,564 (+11%)	9mo	$198,800	$127	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $181,361
• Equity at exit: $178,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.61×
• Total profit: $477,142
• Equity at exit: $384,670

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$248 /mo · $2,970/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $1,149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,272

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,286	-5% $1,218	+0% $1,149	+5% $1,081	+10% $1,013
Rent	-10% $855	-5% $1,002	+0% $1,149	+5% $1,297	+10% $1,444
Rate	-1.0pp $1,249	-0.5pp $1,200	base $1,149	+0.5pp $1,098	+1.0pp $1,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $198,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $198,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $198,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $198,000 Active
5. 2014-02-28
   soldstatus $23,000 Sold 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   SOME CLEAN UP NEEDED, FULLY ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH CLOSE TO POOL AND REC ROOM.

6. 2013-10-25
   status Pending 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   SOME CLEAN UP NEEDED, FULLY ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH CLOSE TO POOL AND REC ROOM.

7. 2013-09-10
   listed $23,000 New 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   SOME CLEAN UP NEEDED, FULLY ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH CLOSE TO POOL AND REC ROOM.

8. 2011-11-16
   historical
9. 2011-08-20
   price Price Change
10. 2011-08-15
    listed New
11. 2011-04-26
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold
12. 2011-04-06
    listed $22,000 New
13. 1998-09-30
    soldstatus $34,950
14. 1998-09-16
    listed $34,000
15. 1998-09-16
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,970
• − Insurance: −$6,108
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,578
• − Management: −$3,578
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable income: $11,638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,793
• After-tax cash flow: $11,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+482.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $198,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) $23,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-10-25 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-09-10 Listed $23,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-11-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-08-20 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-08-15 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-04-26 Sold (MLS) $22,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-04-06 Listed $22,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-30 Sold (MLS) $34,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-16 Listed $34,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $148 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.