515 W 1st St · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 259 Days on market

Built 1914 6,500 sqft lot $104/sqft · 40% below area Est $233k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Partially Rehabbed Home! – Located in West Aberdeen, this property is ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to design their own space. With the major exterior work already completed, much of the heavy lifting is done—now it’s ready for your vision to bring it to life. The home has new siding, trim, doors/sliders, and windows. The interior is a blank canvas w/ original softwood floors and partially completed ceramic tile flooring in the bathrooms + kitchen. The layout features the original wood staircase, living room w/ wood stove, dining area, main floor bedroom, kitchen, laundry room + main floor bathroom while the upstairs has 3 bedrooms and an additional f

Key facts

• New siding
• New doors
• New trim

Tags

• NEW SIDING
• NEW TRIM
• NEW DOORS
• NEW WINDOWS
• ORIGINAL SOFTWOOD FLOORS
• ORIGINAL WOOD STAIRCASE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.62%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,444
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -40.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Simpson Ave	0.29mi	4/1.0	1,314 (-2%)	6mo	$150,000	$114	74
909 W Market St	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,269 (-5%)	3mo	$235,000	$185	70
1613 Cherry St	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	5mo	$310,000	$225	64
1401 Cherry St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (+2%)	8mo	$246,500	$180	59
609 W 3rd Street Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,524 (+14%)	13mo	$245,000	$161	59
1408 W 2nd St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-4%)	13mo	$170,000	$132	56
214 N Washington St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (+12%)	12mo	$200,000	$134	54
1506 Morgan St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,468 (+10%)	2mo	$248,000	$169	51
611 Conger St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+8%)	5mo	$275,000	$190	43
1805 W 1st St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,459 (+9%)	3mo	$169,000	$116	43
1815 Cherry St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,206 (-10%)	9mo	$230,000	$191	35
1717 Cherry St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (-15%)	10mo	$219,000	$193	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,660
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,556
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,648

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $152	+0% $112	+5% $73	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $42	+0% $112	+5% $183	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $148	base $112	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 S Park St Apt 2 Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	44d	1	0.20mi
1619 W 6th St Aberdeen, WA	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,295	$1.31	44d	1	0.66mi
908 E 1st St Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	1608	$2,100	$1.31	44d	1	0.89mi
3033 Sumner Ave Hoquiam, WA	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,695	$1.50	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 237 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $139,000
18. 2026-04-02
    status Active
19. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
20. 2025-09-25
    listed $165,000 Active
21. 2023-10-18
    soldstatus $155,000
22. 2005-11-02
    soldstatus $57,900
23. 2001-09-24
    soldstatus $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$5,814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
• − Management: −$1,719
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$158
• After-tax cash flow: $1,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+146.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,062 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.