419 Florida Ave · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$155,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1910 0.26 ac lot $84/sqft · 16% above area Est $133k · 16% over ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 223 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,639/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 1717% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,421
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 16.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Franklin St St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+1%)	2mo	$180,000	$97	81
1706 Union St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-6%)	6mo	$85,000	$49	68
1321 Taylor St	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,806 (-2%)	6mo	$136,000	$75	58
1009 16th St. St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,730 (-6%)	8mo	$189,900	$110	57
1603 Taylor St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,948 (+6%)	6mo	$90,500	$46	53
1021 Harrison St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,942 (+6%)	2mo	$250,000	$129	49
1509 Wise St	0.61mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (-4%)	8mo	$140,000	$80	48
1434 Augusta St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+8%)	2mo	$182,000	$92	46
1109 Harrison St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,650 (-10%)	4mo	$265,000	$161	46
1301 Clay St	0.47mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,038 (+11%)	11mo	$334,000	$164	35
1001 Jackson St	0.74mi	4/1.0	1,569 (-15%)	11mo	$92,000	$59	32
915 17th St	0.43mi	5/5.0 (+1)	2,108 (+15%)	12mo	$215,000	$102	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,696
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,040
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Grace St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2173	$1,495	$0.69	13d	1	0.38mi
1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1535	$1,500	$0.98	43d	1	0.43mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	21d	1	0.54mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	13d	1	0.59mi
1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	13d	1	0.68mi
1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	13d	1	0.68mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	0.69mi
1110 11th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,450	$0.72	13d	1	0.72mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	0.87mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	21d	1	0.87mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	13d	1	0.88mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	21d	1	1.03mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	43d	1	1.05mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	43d	1	1.45mi
507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 205 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 204 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    price $155,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

18. 2026-02-10
    price $158,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

19. 2025-11-28
    price $160,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

20. 2025-11-28
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

21. 2025-11-18
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

22. 2025-10-28
    listed $169,900 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Welcome to 419 Florida AVE, this home offers 4 LARGE bedrooms & 2 full bathrooms. Located in the heart of Lynchburg ready to become home for a first time buyer or a cash cow for an investor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$687/yr (+$57/mo · 117.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$473
• After-tax cash flow: $3,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $155,000 LMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $158,000 LMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $160,000 LMLS
• 2025-11-28 Relisted — LMLS
• 2025-11-18 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $169,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +167.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.