920 Carolina Dr · Bridge City, TX 77611

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1961 6,970 sqft lot Est $186k · 38% under · waterfront

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/1/2 in Bridge City ISD. Great starter home in quiet neighborhood, Offers three bedrooms, one bath, kitchen with electric range/ micro, pantry. open living room. fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Nice kitchen
• Spacious living area
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• NICE KITCHEN
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.2% in Bridge City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bridge City ISD (other): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.61%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,484
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 David St	1.42mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-1%)	16mo	$147,000	$134	50
245 N Clover St	1.16mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+9%)	1mo	$149,900	$124	46
407 Calvin Dr	1.47mi	3/1.5	1,203 (+8%)	9mo	$129,900	$108	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,935
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $32,820
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77611

• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $385	+0% $352	+5% $320	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $287	+0% $352	+5% $418	+10% $483
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $381	base $352	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1180 Alton St Bridge City, TX	3.0	1.5	1470	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.31mi
404 Crescent Dr Bridge City, TX	3.0	2.0	1063	$1,500	$1.41	15d	1	0.95mi
2201 Wise St Bridge City, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	14d	7	1.40mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $114,900
3. 2026-04-23
   price $109,900
4. 2026-04-22
   status Active
5. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-13
   listed $114,900 Active
7. 2021-07-15
   soldstatus
8. 2021-07-08
   soldstatus 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   3/1/2 in Bridge City ISD. Great starter home in quiet neighborhood, Offers three bedrooms, one bath, kitchen with electric range/ micro, pantry. open living room. fenced back yard.

9. 2021-06-21
   listed $109,900 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   3/1/2 in Bridge City ISD. Great starter home in quiet neighborhood, Offers three bedrooms, one bath, kitchen with electric range/ micro, pantry. open living room. fenced back yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $2,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$642
• After-tax cash flow: $3,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridge City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811310
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,817
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3720
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bridge City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #5948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bridge City, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 10,112
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,112
• Household income: $92,004
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 214.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.42%
• Current HPI: 155.9874
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $114,900 BBOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $109,900 BBOR
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-04-17 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $114,900 BBOR
• 2021-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-08 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2021-06-21 Listed $109,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.