998 Winchester Cove Rd · Hayesville, NC 28904

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1995

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Single Wide Mobile Home on 3.3 acre wooded lot. Very private, well, septic for 3 BD Home. Lot cannot be subdivided.

Key facts

• 3.3 acre wooded lot
• Private
• Built 1995

Tags

• 3.3 ACRE WOODED LOT
• PRIVATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.6% in Hayesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#209 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Clay County Schools (rural): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #73 of 178 in NC (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hayesville Elementary (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 270 students, 66% FRL); Hayesville Middle (math 40% / reading 48%, grade D, #176 of 475 statewide, top 38%, 274 students, 63% FRL); Hayesville High (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 393 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 694 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,330 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.47%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $22,704
• Equity at exit: $63,675

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $78,119
• Equity at exit: $86,394

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28904

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $323	+0% $272	+5% $221	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $205	+0% $272	+5% $338	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $317	base $272	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$998/yr (+$83/mo · 209.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥98°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$67
• After-tax cash flow: $3,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,205
• Composite: 40.31/100
• National rank: #3751
• State rank: #73 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hayesville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #10111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,614

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,855 people
• By 2030: 10,820 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 10,527 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 10,099 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 9,094 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 7,834 · -27.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.1) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -35.6pp · 2024: -50.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+42.5 2008: R+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 338.2524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $179,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · +29.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.