15 John Paul Ct · Buffalo, NY 14206

$199,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1989 5,007 sqft lot Est $201k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

What an incredible opportunity to own a spacious, character-filled home at an affordable price! With low taxes helping to keep your mortgage payment affordable, this is a smart move for both comfort and value. This beautiful property features three generously sized bedrooms, one full bath, and a convenient half bath. The oversized living and dining rooms provide plenty of space for entertaining or relaxing in comfort. The eat-in kitchen offers a fantastic layout for cooking and gathering, while the bonus room just off the kitchen adds even more flexible living space—perfect for a home office, playroom, den, or hobby area. Step outside to the rear patio where you’ll find a charmi

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Pool house
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM
• REAR PATIO
• POOL HOUSE
• MECHANICAL SYSTEMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $200k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $165,264 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.00%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 John Paul Ct Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,274 (-9%)	4mo	$234,900	$184	76
553 William St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,279 (-8%)	5mo	$231,750	$181	61
23 Guilford St	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,322 (-5%)	1mo	$190,000	$144	59
219 Jefferson Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-2%)	5mo	$154,000	$113	55
823 S Division St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (-11%)	2mo	$70,000	$57	48
634 E Eagle St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,279 (-8%)	13mo	$230,000	$180	47
57 Jones St	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,497 (+7%)	12mo	$72,000	$48	47
146 James St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-12%)	19mo	$31,000	$25	45
323 Jefferson Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-12%)	5mo	$195,000	$160	45
95 Peckham St	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,249 (-10%)	18mo	$150,000	$120	38
595 S Division St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	22mo	$235,000	$156	32
102 Guilford St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,572 (+13%)	17mo	$134,500	$86	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $91,932
• Equity at exit: $152,740

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $259,922
• Equity at exit: $303,948

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $196	+0% $140	+5% $-146	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $75	+0% $140	+5% $205	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $191	base $140	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.61mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.61mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.27mi
901 S Park Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1729	$1,600	$0.93	25d	1	1.33mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	1.39mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,050	$1.66	13d	1	1.45mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,100	$1.70	25d	1	1.45mi
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	3d	58	1.46mi
230 Scott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$2,325	$1.81	3d	4	1.48mi
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-15
   listed $199,999 Active
3. 2005-05-27
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,488/yr (+$124/mo · 368.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$424
• After-tax cash flow: $2,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+244.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $199,999 WNYREIS
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $404 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.