80 Manchester Ct · Fairview, NJ 07701

$315,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,021 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1979 435 sqft lot $454/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live among the trees in this serene retreat with complete privacy and natural sunlight throughout both bedrooms and living room. Large open concept kitchen, washer/dryer in home, spacious bedrooms, 3 huge walk-in closets + coat closet.This desirable 2nd floor Navesink Model provides the added square footage of a previously converted sunroom which is fully insulated with baseboard heating, perfect for an office or second living room, and a large skylight illuminates the main living area. Enjoy true life enhancing amenities including Gated Security, Lush Landscaped Grounds, Resort Style Pool, 9 Hole Golf Course, Garden Plot, Tennis, Shuffle Board, Bocce Ball, Billiards, along with a gorgeous lake for Kayaking, Fishing, Walking Paths, Community Bus & Organized Events Throughout the Year!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Bonus room
• Pool

Tags

• NAVESINK MODEL
• IN-UNIT WASHER DRYER
• BONUS ROOM
• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-242/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (1.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $306k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in NJ, #4,548 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D-, cost of living F.
• Middletown Township Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #135 of 472 in NJ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-40,148
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $16,931
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07701

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,684/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$454
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,326

Max offer price $311,439

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $69	+0% $-20	+5% $-109	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-151	+0% $-20	+5% $110	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $60	base $-20	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Lexington Ct Red Bank, NJ	1.0	1.0	999	$2,800	$2.80	5d	1	0.14mi
5B Auburn Ct Red Bank, NJ	2.0	2.0	1142	$3,300	$2.89	26d	1	0.25mi
804 Nutswamp Rd Red Bank, NJ	2.0	1.0	1477	$2,800	$1.90	8d	1	0.56mi
96 Lake Shore Dr Red Bank, NJ	3.0	2.0	1382	$5,500	$3.98	4d	1	0.61mi
170 Monmouth St Red Bank, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$4,195	$3.94	0d	1	1.12mi
116 Chestnut St Red Bank, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$5,374	$5.05	0d	2	1.19mi
12 Market St Red Bank, NJ	3.0	1.0	1180	$3,950	$3.35	0d	1	1.23mi
35 E Westside Ave Red Bank, NJ	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,650	$2.61	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $454 · $5,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2023-07-17
   soldstatus $295,000
4. 2023-06-29
   soldstatus $295,000 Sold 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Live among the trees in this serene retreat with complete privacy and natural sunlight throughout both bedrooms and living room. Large open concept kitchen, washer/dryer in home, spacious bedrooms, 3 huge walk-in closets + coat closet.This desirable 2nd floor Navesink Model provides the added square footage of a previously converted sunroom which is fully insulated with baseboard heating, perfect for an office or second living room, and a large skylight illuminates the main living area. Enjoy true life enhancing amenities including Gated Security, Lush Landscaped Grounds, Resort Style Pool, 9 Hole Golf Course, Garden Plot, Tennis, Shuffle Board, Bocce Ball, Billiards, along with a gorgeous lake for Kayaking, Fishing, Walking Paths, Community Bus & Organized Events Throughout the Year!

5. 2023-06-21
   status Pending 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Live among the trees in this serene retreat with complete privacy and natural sunlight throughout both bedrooms and living room. Large open concept kitchen, washer/dryer in home, spacious bedrooms, 3 huge walk-in closets + coat closet.This desirable 2nd floor Navesink Model provides the added square footage of a previously converted sunroom which is fully insulated with baseboard heating, perfect for an office or second living room, and a large skylight illuminates the main living area. Enjoy true life enhancing amenities including Gated Security, Lush Landscaped Grounds, Resort Style Pool, 9 Hole Golf Course, Garden Plot, Tennis, Shuffle Board, Bocce Ball, Billiards, along with a gorgeous lake for Kayaking, Fishing, Walking Paths, Community Bus & Organized Events Throughout the Year!

6. 2023-06-19
   status Active 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Live among the trees in this serene retreat with complete privacy and natural sunlight throughout both bedrooms and living room. Large open concept kitchen, washer/dryer in home, spacious bedrooms, 3 huge walk-in closets + coat closet.This desirable 2nd floor Navesink Model provides the added square footage of a previously converted sunroom which is fully insulated with baseboard heating, perfect for an office or second living room, and a large skylight illuminates the main living area. Enjoy true life enhancing amenities including Gated Security, Lush Landscaped Grounds, Resort Style Pool, 9 Hole Golf Course, Garden Plot, Tennis, Shuffle Board, Bocce Ball, Billiards, along with a gorgeous lake for Kayaking, Fishing, Walking Paths, Community Bus & Organized Events Throughout the Year!

7. 2023-05-25
   historical Active/Under Contract 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Live among the trees in this serene retreat with complete privacy and natural sunlight throughout both bedrooms and living room. Large open concept kitchen, washer/dryer in home, spacious bedrooms, 3 huge walk-in closets + coat closet.This desirable 2nd floor Navesink Model provides the added square footage of a previously converted sunroom which is fully insulated with baseboard heating, perfect for an office or second living room, and a large skylight illuminates the main living area. Enjoy true life enhancing amenities including Gated Security, Lush Landscaped Grounds, Resort Style Pool, 9 Hole Golf Course, Garden Plot, Tennis, Shuffle Board, Bocce Ball, Billiards, along with a gorgeous lake for Kayaking, Fishing, Walking Paths, Community Bus & Organized Events Throughout the Year!

8. 2023-05-11
   listed $295,000 Active 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Live among the trees in this serene retreat with complete privacy and natural sunlight throughout both bedrooms and living room. Large open concept kitchen, washer/dryer in home, spacious bedrooms, 3 huge walk-in closets + coat closet.This desirable 2nd floor Navesink Model provides the added square footage of a previously converted sunroom which is fully insulated with baseboard heating, perfect for an office or second living room, and a large skylight illuminates the main living area. Enjoy true life enhancing amenities including Gated Security, Lush Landscaped Grounds, Resort Style Pool, 9 Hole Golf Course, Garden Plot, Tennis, Shuffle Board, Bocce Ball, Billiards, along with a gorgeous lake for Kayaking, Fishing, Walking Paths, Community Bus & Organized Events Throughout the Year!

9. 2015-01-29
   soldstatus $134,000
10. 2015-01-21
    soldstatus $134,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained Two Bedroom one bath Navesink Upper Unit with private wooded views! Many updates including: Freshly painted throughout, Newer flooring throughout, newer stove, dishwasher, washer, dryer, storm door, some new windows, and new panel box. Beautiful entrance with lovely gardens below the unit. Manchester is near the front gated entrance of this Active Adult Community. Pool and golf included in maintenance fee. Pet friendly community. Close to downtown Red Bank and train to NYC.

11. 2014-09-22
    listed $137,500 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained Two Bedroom one bath Navesink Upper Unit with private wooded views! Many updates including: Freshly painted throughout, Newer flooring throughout, newer stove, dishwasher, washer, dryer, storm door, some new windows, and new panel box. Beautiful entrance with lovely gardens below the unit. Manchester is near the front gated entrance of this Active Adult Community. Pool and golf included in maintenance fee. Pet friendly community. Close to downtown Red Bank and train to NYC.

12. 2013-04-09
    soldstatus $111,100
13. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus $111,100
14. 2013-01-14
    listed $105,000
15. 1997-07-11
    soldstatus $80,000
16. 1997-06-25
    soldstatus $80,000
17. 1997-04-28
    historical
18. 1997-02-13
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,684 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,264 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,580/yr (+$132/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,684
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − HOA: −$5,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3410110
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $100,708
• Composite: 45.08/100
• National rank: #2694
• State rank: #135 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #4548

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 15,099
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,376
• Household income: $112,143
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.28%
• Current HPI: 350.124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+250.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $315,000 MOMLS
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-29 Sold (MLS) $295,000 MOMLS
• 2023-06-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-06-19 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-05-25 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-05-11 Listed $295,000 MOMLS
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-21 Sold (MLS) $134,000 MOMLS
• 2014-09-22 Listed $137,500 MOMLS
• 2013-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $111,100 Public Records
• 2013-04-03 Sold (MLS) $111,100 MOMLS
• 2013-01-14 Listed $105,000 MOMLS
• 1997-07-11 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MOMLS
• 1997-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-28 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-02-13 Listed $89,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,684 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.