350 Prairie Warbler St · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$314,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,791 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 $176/sqft · 13% below area Est $361k · 13% under $154/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Refined bathroom
• Full-function island

Tags

• REFINED BATHROOM
• SPRAWLING WALK-IN CLOSET
• CHEF'S SPECIALTY KITCHEN
• FULL-FUNCTION ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,467 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.70%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,412
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: -12.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $134,964
• Equity at exit: $283,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $412,599
• Equity at exit: $611,956

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $228,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-314	-5% $-403	+0% $-492	+5% $-581	+10% $-671
Rent	-10% $-648	-5% $-570	+0% $-492	+5% $-414	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-334	-0.5pp $-412	base $-492	+0.5pp $-574	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.13mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	6d	1	0.21mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	23d	1	0.40mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	23d	1	0.45mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	45d	1	0.54mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	0.87mi
134 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$1,966	$0.84	0d	1	0.88mi
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	26d	1	0.92mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.94mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	1.06mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	1.11mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	1.40mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	1.41mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	1.45mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: watercable

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $314,990 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

3. 2026-05-07
   price $324,990 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

4. 2026-04-28
   price $351,183 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

5. 2026-04-16
   status Active 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

6. 2026-03-03
   status Pending 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

7. 2026-02-16
   price $324,990 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

8. 2026-02-13
   status Active 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

9. 2026-01-06
   status Pending 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

10. 2025-12-22
    listed $339,990 Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    **This home is available for self-tour from the hours of 7:30 AM to 7:30 PM.** Entertain in style and enjoy the everyday comforts of The Penmark family home plan. Begin and end each day in the perfect paradise of your Owner's Retreat, which features a refined bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom provides a wonderful place for unique personalities to flourish. The chef's specialty kitchen includes a full-function island and a walk-in pantry. Your open floor plan offers an impeccable space to play host to picture-perfect memories and brilliant social gatherings. Get the most out of each day in this lovely EnergySaver™ new home plan, complete with 2x6 frame construction, tankless water heater, conditioned attic space and extended covered patio.  This beautiful north/south homesite offers an affordable option for first time and move-down buyers.

11. 2025-12-21
    historical
12. 2025-11-14
    price $339,990
13. 2025-10-18
    price $340,443
14. 2025-09-12
    price $339,990
15. 2025-07-29
    price $344,990
16. 2025-07-21
    price $348,729
17. 2025-06-26
    price $339,990
18. 2025-06-09
    listed $339,549 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,382/yr (+$365/mo · 317.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$11,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,810
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $351,183 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $340,443 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $344,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $348,729 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $339,549 HARMLS

Property tax history

+188.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.