2807 Dowling St · West Orange, TX 77630

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1981 9,408 sqft lot $98/sqft · 6% below area Est $134k · 6% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2807 Dowling Street — a solid home offering endless possibilities! This property features a spacious floor plan, large yard, and plenty of natural light throughout. With some updates and TLC, it can easily be transformed into a beautiful family home or a smart investment property. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and accessibility. Whether you’re a first-time buyer ready to make it your own or an investor looking for your next renovation project, 2807 Dowling is full of potential waiting to be unlocked!

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Spacious floor plan

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE YARD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,627
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -6.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1524 Longhorn Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+2%)	8mo	$139,900	$108	64
2705 Terrace Cir	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-2%)	9mo	$139,900	$113	60
2707 Terrace Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+1%)	10mo	$169,999	$132	59
2911 Kelly St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+9%)	18mo	$149,900	$108	38
1527 Buffalo Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-14%)	22mo	$139,900	$127	37
2120 Houston St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-12%)	4mo	$149,800	$134	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $17,728
• Equity at exit: $42,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $71,424
• Equity at exit: $56,844

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $211	+0% $175	+5% $140	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $118	+0% $175	+5% $233	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $207	base $175	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2810 Gandy St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,700	$1.05	45d	1	0.09mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	15d	1	0.39mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	15d	1	0.48mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.98mi
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	15d	1	1.03mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	45d	1	1.04mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	45d	1	1.06mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	45d	1	1.08mi
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	15d	1	1.28mi
3726 Bowling Ln Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1045	$1,150	$1.10	45d	1	1.28mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	45d	1	1.29mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	45d	1	1.30mi
306 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1529	$1,195	$0.78	22d	1	1.30mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	14d	12	1.36mi
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	22d	1	1.36mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	45d	1	1.37mi
1010 Highway 87 S Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,425	$1.62	15d	13	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-01-05
   listed $125,000 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Welcome to 2807 Dowling Street — a solid home offering endless possibilities! This property features a spacious floor plan, large yard, and plenty of natural light throughout. With some updates and TLC, it can easily be transformed into a beautiful family home or a smart investment property. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and accessibility. Whether you’re a first-time buyer ready to make it your own or an investor looking for your next renovation project, 2807 Dowling is full of potential waiting to be unlocked!

4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-10-06
   listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $2,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Orange

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #19069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,422 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.