4882 Lancaster Dr NE #12 · Hayesville, OR 97305

$32,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Manufactured public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1967 $48/sqft · 43% below area Est $58k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

Key facts

• Handicap amenities
• New paint
• New cabinets

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW CABINETS
• HANDICAP AMENITIES
• DESIRABLE PARK LOCATION

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $32,999 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$57,793) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.3% vs local median 3.1% in Hayesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#63 in OR, #2,298 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $29,039 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 121.47%
• DSCR: 6.40
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,793
• List price: $32,999
• Delta: -42.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4882 Lancaster Dr NE #71	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (+15%)	13mo	$30,000	$38	65
5534 NE 43rd Pl	0.63mi	2/1.0	700 (+2%)	21mo	$15,000	$21	50
5512 43rd Ave NE	0.60mi	2/1.0	784 (+15%)	22mo	$26,000	$33	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $54,220
• Equity at exit: $4,920

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.41×
• Total profit: $123,916
• Equity at exit: $2,853

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax from tax record: −$6 /mo · $68/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $244

Max offer price $32,999

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $954	-5% $945	+0% $935	+5% $888	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $823	-5% $879	+0% $935	+5% $992	+10% $1,048
Rate	-1.0pp $952	-0.5pp $944	base $935	+0.5pp $927	+1.0pp $918

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,695	$1.83	14d	25	0.36mi
4553 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4553-B Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	575	$995	$1.73	44d	1	0.58mi
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,958	$2.23	14d	20	0.61mi
3942 Ward Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,550	$2.00	44d	3	0.89mi
3875 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	707	$1,295	$1.83	24d	1	0.92mi
2768 Claxter Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,599	$1.97	14d	3	1.22mi
3932 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	24d	1	1.30mi
2540 Hyacinth St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,220	$1.83	14d	2	1.40mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	44d	1	1.45mi
3639 White Oak Ct NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	575	$1,100	$1.91	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,999 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,999 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,999 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,999 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,999 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $32,999 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,999 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,999 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $32,999 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,999 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,999 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,999 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,999 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $32,999 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    status Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

16. 2026-04-14
    status Pending 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

17. 2026-02-24
    price $32,999 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

18. 2026-01-23
    price $39,999 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

19. 2026-01-06
    price $42,999 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

20. 2025-12-11
    listed $47,999 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move-in ready! This charming manufactured home in a desirable 55+ park features brand-new flooring, paint, ceilings, cabinets, sink, and bathtub. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and I-5. Park rent is $750/month. Has handicap amenities.

21. 2014-09-18
    historical
22. 2004-02-05
    listed $3,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $68 · $6/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $320 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 373.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,848
• − Property taxes: −$68
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $11,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,723
• After-tax cash flow: $8,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Hayesville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #2298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayesville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+842.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — WVMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $32,999 WVMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $39,999 WVMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $42,999 WVMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $47,999 WVMLS
• 2014-09-18 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2004-02-05 Listed $3,500 WVMLS