4016 Pleasant Ave · Odessa, TX 79764

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1958 7,418 sqft lot $139/sqft · 59% above area Est $195k · 5% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Could be a 4 bedroom; garage could be made into a master suite.

Key facts

• 7,418 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,377
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -5.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 W 30th St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,257 (-5%)	20mo	$174,900	$139	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,189
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,633
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79764

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $968/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 W 40th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	43d	1	0.22mi
3509 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	0.42mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.50mi
3107 Merrill Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	43d	1	0.59mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	0.66mi
237 Orchard Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,000	$1.13	13d	1	0.71mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	43d	1	1.38mi
6015 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1140	$3,500	$3.07	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    price $185,000 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Could be a 4 bedroom; garage could be made into a master suite.

17. 2026-01-27
    listed $199,000 Active 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Could be a 4 bedroom; garage could be made into a master suite.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $968 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,417/yr (+$201/mo · 249.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$968
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 26,805

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 37% Two or more races 17% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.67%
• Current HPI: 238.7065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $185,000 ODMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $199,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $968 · +22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.