1807 Shannon Lake Dr · Lakeside, FL 32068

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1985 0.27 ac lot Est $246k · 5% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2 iNVESTOR FIXER UPPER. FLOORS REDONE, NEEDS CLEANED OUT. SELLER IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. NO ELECTRIC ON BUT CAN BE PUT ON FOR INSPECTIONS.

Key facts

• Full renovation
• Updated countertops
• Brand-new kitchen

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULLY UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Used as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Lot about 0.27 acres; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating and central air conditioning; Cable available
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-300/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $259k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,488 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1807 Shannon Lake Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,096 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$128	98
1816 Shannon Lake Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-2%)	2mo	$265,000	$247	92
1872 Shannon Lake Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-7%)	12mo	$245,000	$239	75
1875 Shannon Lake Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+5%)	18mo	$259,000	$224	72
1860 Killarn Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (-4%)	10mo	$245,000	$233	71
1848 Shannon Lake Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,219 (+11%)	13mo	$160,000	$131	65
3165 Sanderling Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+9%)	13mo	$276,900	$232	61
3406 Alec Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	9mo	$230,000	$202	53
1860 Hollars Pl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+10%)	17mo	$290,000	$240	53
1891 Hunters Trace Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+13%)	7mo	$228,000	$185	51
1822 Jake Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+8%)	16mo	$259,000	$220	43
1810 Sheraton Lakes Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+15%)	14mo	$270,000	$214	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,012
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-37,221
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $254,581

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2995 Biloxi Trl Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,750	$1.23	4d	1	0.60mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	20d	1	0.65mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,710	$1.45	2d	1	0.71mi
3437 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,779	$1.37	10d	1	0.74mi
1608 Twin Oak Dr W Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,845	$1.45	2d	1	1.06mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,775	$1.49	23d	1	1.11mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,900	$1.57	23d	1	1.21mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	23d	1	1.36mi
3223 Merganzer Trl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,755	$1.52	23d	1	1.37mi
3248 Dowitcher Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	23d	1	1.40mi
3255 Hammock Cove Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-29
    listed $259,000 Active
15. 2026-04-08
    soldstatus $140,000
16. 2026-04-07
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    3/2 iNVESTOR FIXER UPPER. FLOORS REDONE, NEEDS CLEANED OUT. SELLER IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. NO ELECTRIC ON BUT CAN BE PUT ON FOR INSPECTIONS.

17. 2026-03-18
    status Pending 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    3/2 iNVESTOR FIXER UPPER. FLOORS REDONE, NEEDS CLEANED OUT. SELLER IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. NO ELECTRIC ON BUT CAN BE PUT ON FOR INSPECTIONS.

18. 2026-03-09
    historical Active Under Contract 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    3/2 iNVESTOR FIXER UPPER. FLOORS REDONE, NEEDS CLEANED OUT. SELLER IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. NO ELECTRIC ON BUT CAN BE PUT ON FOR INSPECTIONS.

19. 2026-02-27
    listed $199,500 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    3/2 iNVESTOR FIXER UPPER. FLOORS REDONE, NEEDS CLEANED OUT. SELLER IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. NO ELECTRIC ON BUT CAN BE PUT ON FOR INSPECTIONS.

20. 2006-01-25
    soldstatus $133,000
21. 2006-01-18
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Move in condition, new interior and exterior paint. Solid wood parquet floors and tile.Inside utility room with new washer & dryer which stay. Kitchen has a new range and a refrigerator. Big fenced yard backs to pond. Underground utilities. Termite bond. Walking distance to Middle School on a Cul-de-sac lot. Existing Negotiations with buyer/offer to expire 1/5/06, contingencies exist.

22. 2006-01-10
    soldstatus $133,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Move in condition, new interior and exterior paint. Solid wood parquet floors and tile.Inside utility room with new washer & dryer which stay. Kitchen has a new range and a refrigerator. Big fenced yard backs to pond. Underground utilities. Termite bond. Walking distance to Middle School on a Cul-de-sac lot. Existing Negotiations with buyer/offer to expire 1/5/06, contingencies exist.

23. 2005-10-21
    listed $135,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Move in condition, new interior and exterior paint. Solid wood parquet floors and tile.Inside utility room with new washer & dryer which stay. Kitchen has a new range and a refrigerator. Big fenced yard backs to pond. Underground utilities. Termite bond. Walking distance to Middle School on a Cul-de-sac lot. Existing Negotiations with buyer/offer to expire 1/5/06, contingencies exist.

24. 1998-06-05
    soldstatus $71,000
25. 1995-07-31
    soldstatus $63,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,290/yr (+$108/mo · 150.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$4,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+306.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $259,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-07 Sold (MLS) $140,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,500 realMLS
• 2006-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-01-10 Sold (MLS) $133,000 realMLS
• 2005-10-21 Listed $135,000 realMLS
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $63,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.