941 Deer Run · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 222 Days on market

Built 2020 0.36 ac lot $132/sqft · 32% below area Est $296k · 32% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

Key facts

• Lake property
• Covered patio
• Two decks

Tags

• LAKE PROPERTY
• LAKE ACCESS
• TWO DECKS
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,746
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -32.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1438 Deer Run Pass	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	13mo	$145,000	$100	73
1234 Deer Run Pass	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (-2%)	16mo	$229,900	$156	67
144 Deer Run	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+4%)	8mo	$259,000	$164	61
223 Oaklane St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-2%)	15mo	$192,980	$131	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,072
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,043
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,232/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $261	+0% $204	+5% $148	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $128	+0% $204	+5% $281	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $255	base $204	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	25d	1	0.28mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,995	$1.36	45d	1	0.28mi
532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	22d	1	0.53mi
324 Ridgerock Dr Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	25d	1	0.82mi
507 Scenic Run Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	45d	1	0.97mi
101 Cielo Vis Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2112	$2,400	$1.14	16d	1	1.06mi
252 Sir Winston Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,495	$1.16	45d	1	1.12mi
446 W Overlook Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,825	$1.31	45d	1	1.20mi
634 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,400	$1.92	45d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $199,900 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

16. 2026-03-25
    price $205,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

17. 2026-03-02
    status Back on Market 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

18. 2026-02-28
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

19. 2026-02-04
    price $219,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

20. 2026-01-16
    price $235,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

21. 2026-01-15
    status Back on Market 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

22. 2025-11-10
    status Pending 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

23. 2025-10-22
    price $245,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

24. 2025-10-01
    price $254,950 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

25. 2025-09-04
    listed $259,995 New 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Drastically REDUCED Pre-Foreclosure Sale! Peaceful views and a quiet neighborhood are perfect for lake living in this spacious and open 3 bedroom 2 bath on .3 acres. It has two decks with peaceful views and an area for evenings around the fire enjoying friends and family. Circle drive and a nice covered patio in front. Furniture included as an added incentive. Ready for living your best life.

26. 2025-04-16
    historical
27. 2025-04-14
    listed $255,000 New
28. 2025-04-13
    historical
29. 2025-03-01
    price $255,000
30. 2025-02-08
    price $258,999
31. 2025-02-01
    historical $1,900
32. 2025-01-16
    price $264,500
33. 2024-12-13
    listed $265,000 New
34. 2024-12-13
    historical
35. 2024-10-22
    listed $1,900
36. 2024-10-12
    listed $265,000 New
37. 2024-10-12
    historical
38. 2024-08-21
    listed $265,000 New
39. 2022-10-19
    soldstatus
40. 2022-09-30
    historical
41. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus
42. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus Sold
43. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus Closed
44. 2022-09-03
    status Active Under Contract
45. 2022-08-31
    historical
46. 2022-08-04
    status Pending
47. 2022-07-29
    historical Active Under Contract
48. 2022-07-25
    historical Active Under Contract
49. 2022-05-24
    price $248,000
50. 2022-05-24
    status Back on Market

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,232 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,426/yr (+$119/mo · 63.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,232
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$197
• After-tax cash flow: $2,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

51 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $199,900 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $205,000 LERA
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $219,000 LERA
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $235,000 LERA
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-10 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $245,000 LERA
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $254,950 LERA
• 2025-09-04 Listed $259,995 LERA
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-14 Listed $255,000 LERA
• 2025-04-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $255,000 LERA
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $258,999 LERA
• 2025-02-01 Rental Removed $1,900 SABOR
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $264,500 LERA
• 2024-12-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-12-13 Listed $265,000 LERA
• 2024-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,900 SABOR
• 2024-10-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-10-12 Listed $265,000 LERA
• 2024-08-21 Listed $265,000 LERA
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-09-03 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2022-08-04 Pending — LERA
• 2022-07-29 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2022-07-25 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-05-24 Price Changed $248,000 LERA
• 2022-05-24 Relisted — LERA
• 2022-05-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2022-05-24 Price Changed $248,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-05-23 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2022-05-23 Price Changed $248,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-05-10 Pending — LERA
• 2022-05-10 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-05-10 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-05-09 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $244,000 LERA
• 2022-01-10 Listed $244,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-01-01 Listed $248,000 LERA
• 2022-01-01 Listed $244,000 Unlock MLS
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,232 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.