3709 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21213

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1928 $90/sqft · 8% below area Est $136k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

Key facts

• Built 1928
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Hot water: Other
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Located within city limits (Baltimore City); No tidal water nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with connecting stairway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,015/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $154 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-710 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $125k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.82%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,972
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -8.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2846 Lake Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,455 (+5%)	2mo	$235,000	$162	74
3406 Ramona Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (+2%)	0mo	$85,000	$60	72
3114 Mareco Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+2%)	2mo	$125,000	$89	68
2902 Clifton Park Ter	0.41mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	1mo	$66,000	$49	68
3571 Dudley Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	65
3533 Elmley Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	1mo	$70,000	$52	61
4235 Seidel Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (-8%)	2mo	$91,000	$71	57
3733 Ravenwood Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-3%)	1mo	$135,000	$100	54
3564 Elmora Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,478 (+7%)	1mo	$133,500	$90	52
4215 Seidel Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+10%)	2mo	$186,500	$122	50
3532 Cliftmont Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$168,000	$140	47
3555 Elmora Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,178 (-15%)	1mo	$254,000	$216	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $43,855
• Equity at exit: $32,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $130,506
• Equity at exit: $36,708

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,098

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	43d	1	0.11mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	43d	1	0.14mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	23d	1	0.16mi
2735 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	10d	1	0.22mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	43d	1	0.25mi
2828 Lake Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,850	$1.59	4d	1	0.25mi
3300 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,200	$1.28	43d	1	0.25mi
3515 Parklawn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	2d	1	0.26mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	23d	1	0.38mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	43d	1	0.39mi
3203 Clarence Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	1.0	1388	$1,865	$1.34	43d	1	0.41mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	4d	1	0.42mi
3544 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,635	$1.36	43d	1	0.45mi
3519 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,100	$1.37	10d	1	0.46mi
3525 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,950	$1.27	43d	1	0.46mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	23d	1	0.48mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	17d	1	0.51mi
3551 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1872	$2,095	$1.12	23d	1	0.56mi
3512 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,900	$1.29	20d	1	0.64mi
3603 Ravenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1566	$1,600	$1.02	43d	1	0.69mi
3914 Erdman Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,319	$1.10	17d	1	0.72mi
3317 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.72mi
3326 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.73mi
3339 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$1,600	$1.79	43d	1	0.74mi
3222 Lyndale Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	12d	1	0.74mi
3218 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1020	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.75mi
3322 Ravenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	932	$1,800	$1.93	23d	1	0.77mi
2113 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,795	$1.34	43d	1	0.83mi
4116 Raymonn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	43d	1	0.83mi
4718 Blue Ridge Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,400	$1.38	11d	1	0.89mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,463	$1.97	2d	1	1.00mi
4300 Orchard Ridge Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,809	$1.77	43d	1	1.00mi
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	23d	1	1.06mi
5305 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	679	$1,993	$2.93	2d	1	1.08mi
1832 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,495	$1.40	23d	1	1.11mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	43d	1	1.13mi
1802 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	23d	1	1.15mi
5731 Denwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,700	$1.18	23d	1	1.23mi
5731 Denwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,700	$1.48	21d	1	1.23mi
1702 E 32nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,300	$1.71	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $139,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $150,000 442-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    price $155,000 442-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $174,900 Active 442-char remark
18. 2010-11-12
    historical 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

19. 2010-10-30
    soldstatus $30,000 Sold 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

20. 2010-10-30
    soldstatus $30,000

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

21. 2010-09-17
    status Contract 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

22. 2010-09-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

23. 2010-07-16
    listed $33,900 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

24. 2010-07-16
    listed $33,900

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Dont miss this one. Sold as is where is and all inspections are for buyers informational purposes only. Wells Fargo Pre-approval and proof of funds req with all offers. If a ground rent exist seller will not redeem

25. 2006-08-29
    soldstatus $155,000
26. 2004-01-13
    soldstatus $35,000
27. 2003-12-22
    soldstatus $29,000
28. 2003-11-17
    historical
29. 2003-11-06
    listed $29,900
30. 2001-01-30
    soldstatus $60,400
31. 2000-11-30
    historical
32. 2000-06-29
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $6,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+107.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-10-30 Sold (MLS) $30,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-30 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MRIS
• 2010-09-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-09-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-16 Listed $33,900 MRIS
• 2010-07-16 Listed $33,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-22 Sold (MLS) $29,000 MRIS
• 2003-11-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-11-06 Listed $29,900 MRIS
• 2001-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,400 Public Records
• 2000-11-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-06-29 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.