5816 Janet Dr · Clay, AL 35173

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1991 0.34 ac lot $171/sqft · 20% above area Est $206k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore 5816 Janet Dr, recently improved with fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. The living space includes a comforting fireplace, while the kitchen features all stainless steel appliances paired with an accent backsplash. An exterior deck provides an extended area for outdoor enjoyment. Updated style and inviting features create a move-in ready experience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Exterior deck
• Fireplace
• Accent backsplash

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• EXTERIOR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AL, #3,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clay Elementary School (math 10% / reading 40%, grade F, #414 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 632 students, 48% FRL); Claychalkville Middle School (math 2% / reading 26%, grade F, #209 of 257 statewide, top 82%, 1,032 students, 64% FRL); Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,615
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -5.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5831 Brenda Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,103 (-3%)	5mo	$139,900	$127	85
5861 Janet Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-6%)	3mo	$194,900	$182	79
5923 Debbie Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	12mo	$167,000	$155	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,784
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,058
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35173

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,008/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $176	+0% $121	+5% $66	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $56	+0% $121	+5% $186	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $171	base $121	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5849 Janet Dr Trussville, AL	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	3d	1	0.15mi
7746 Taylor Shop Rd Trussville, AL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $194,000 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $194,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $194,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $194,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $194,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $194,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Explore 5816 Janet Dr, recently improved with fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. The living space includes a comforting fireplace, while the kitchen features all stainless steel appliances paired with an accent backsplash. An exterior deck provides an extended area for outdoor enjoyment. Updated style and inviting features create a move-in ready experience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

11. 2026-04-23
    price $199,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Explore 5816 Janet Dr, recently improved with fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. The living space includes a comforting fireplace, while the kitchen features all stainless steel appliances paired with an accent backsplash. An exterior deck provides an extended area for outdoor enjoyment. Updated style and inviting features create a move-in ready experience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

12. 2026-04-16
    listed $203,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Explore 5816 Janet Dr, recently improved with fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. The living space includes a comforting fireplace, while the kitchen features all stainless steel appliances paired with an accent backsplash. An exterior deck provides an extended area for outdoor enjoyment. Updated style and inviting features create a move-in ready experience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

13. 2026-04-01
    soldstatus $182,500
14. 2017-06-09
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

15. 2017-05-04
    historical Contingent 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

16. 2017-04-25
    status Active 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

17. 2017-03-14
    historical Contingent 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

18. 2017-02-22
    status Active 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

19. 2017-02-16
    historical Contingent 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

20. 2016-09-22
    listed $109,900 Active 16-char remark

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    Recently updated

21. 1991-08-06
    soldstatus $70,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,008
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$1,857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$446
• After-tax cash flow: $1,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Clay

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, AL
• Population (ZIP): 32,125

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.75%
• Current HPI: 208.5715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+173.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $194,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $203,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-05-04 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-04-25 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-03-14 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-02-22 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-02-16 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-09-22 Listed $109,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1991-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.