20054 Kincaid · Grangerland, TX 77306

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.75 ac lot $107/sqft · 18% below area Est $218k · 18% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on a generous 0.75-acre lot in Conroe! This property features an open living area, functional kitchen, and spacious primary suite. The large lot offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Convenient location with easy access to local amenities while still providing space and privacy.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Outdoor entertaining
• Large lot

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,396
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -17.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13081 Lewelling Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,791 (+7%)	11mo	$184,950	$103	56
18284 Bellfounder Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+7%)	4mo	$167,950	$93	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,811
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,920
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,384/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-07
   price $179,900 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on a generous 0.75-acre lot in Conroe! This property features an open living area, functional kitchen, and spacious primary suite. The large lot offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Convenient location with easy access to local amenities while still providing space and privacy.

2. 2026-03-16
   listed $195,000 New 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on a generous 0.75-acre lot in Conroe! This property features an open living area, functional kitchen, and spacious primary suite. The large lot offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Convenient location with easy access to local amenities while still providing space and privacy.

3. 2026-01-30
   listed $195,900 Active
4. 2025-10-09
   historical
5. 2025-07-04
   price $215,000
6. 2025-05-22
   price $220,000
7. 2025-05-22
   status Back on Market
8. 2025-05-20
   historical
9. 2024-08-28
   price $250,000
10. 2024-07-22
    listed $260,000 New
11. 2023-03-01
    soldstatus
12. 2022-11-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$908/yr (+$76/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,384
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $3,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 20054 Kincaid, Grangerland TX, is a well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on a spacious 0.75-acre lot. The home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80, and requires minimal cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and maintain its value.
• Both Landscaping and adding outdoor furniture — Improves the outdoor living space and can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and maintain its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding outdoor furniture — Improves the outdoor living space and can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $179,900 LERA
• 2026-03-16 Listed $195,000 LERA
• 2026-01-30 Listed $195,900 LAAR
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $215,000 LERA
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2025-05-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $250,000 LERA
• 2024-07-22 Listed $260,000 LERA
• 2023-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+87.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,384 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.