4016 East Ave · Erie, PA 16504

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Well Maintained Home Features A Large Livingroom Complete W/ Gas Fireplace, Large Formal Dining Room & A Bright Sunroom That Opens To A Large Stamped Concrete Patio Perfect For Grilling & Entertaining. Open Living/Kitchen Gives This Home An Open And Airy Feel. Large Shed For Outdoor Storage. Move In Ready! Don't Miss This!

Key facts

• Heated sunroom
• Spacious corner lot
• Built-in doggy door

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED SIDE YARD
• STAMPED CONCRETE PATIO
• HEATED SUNROOM
• BUILT-IN DOGGY DOOR
• CLEAN DRY BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $175k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3913 East Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+2%)	0mo	$255,000	$193	90
4016 East Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,486 (+15%)	0mo	$186,000	$125	75
3912 Lake Pleasant Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-12%)	1mo	$142,900	$125	74
909 E 37th St	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,285 (-1%)	2mo	$142,000	$111	73
4139 Burton Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-4%)	2mo	$165,500	$133	73
749 E 32nd St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,270 (-2%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	66
953 E 33rd St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,333 (+3%)	3mo	$99,500	$75	65
1128 E 35th St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-10%)	0mo	$164,900	$142	63
837 E 42nd St	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,107 (-15%)	1mo	$191,500	$173	57
1311 E 41st St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$161	57
1021 E 31st St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-9%)	2mo	$130,900	$111	54
2925 Pennsylvania Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,157 (-11%)	2mo	$133,000	$115	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,403
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,068
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,173/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,694

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $188	+0% $139	+5% $89	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $65	+0% $139	+5% $213	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $183	base $139	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	1.31mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	1.42mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2015-06-02
   soldstatus $87,000
4. 2015-05-29
   soldstatus $87,000 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This Well Maintained Home Features A Large Livingroom Complete W/ Gas Fireplace, Large Formal Dining Room & A Bright Sunroom That Opens To A Large Stamped Concrete Patio Perfect For Grilling & Entertaining. Open Living/Kitchen Gives This Home An Open And Airy Feel. Large Shed For Outdoor Storage. Move In Ready! Don't Miss This!

5. 2014-11-04
   listed $88,500 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This Well Maintained Home Features A Large Livingroom Complete W/ Gas Fireplace, Large Formal Dining Room & A Bright Sunroom That Opens To A Large Stamped Concrete Patio Perfect For Grilling & Entertaining. Open Living/Kitchen Gives This Home An Open And Airy Feel. Large Shed For Outdoor Storage. Move In Ready! Don't Miss This!

6. 2014-05-04
   listed $89,900
7. 2009-06-26
   soldstatus $92,500
8. 1976-08-31
   soldstatus $25,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,173 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,173 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,173
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$262
• After-tax cash flow: $1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+575.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-07 Listed $175,000 GEBOR
• 2015-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $87,000 GEBOR
• 2014-11-04 Listed $88,500 GEBOR
• 2014-05-04 Listed $89,900 GEBOR
• 2009-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 1976-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,173 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.