18730 Broadhurst Dr · Twain Harte, CA 95383

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1972 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A diamond in the rough in Twain Harte Valley. Bring your vision and your tools and make this home truly beautiful. Close to recreational areas like Dodge Ridge, Pinecrest Lake, the PGE flume, and the High Sierra. Twain Harte is a four season location with something for everyone.

Key facts

• Twain harte valley
• Four season location
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• TWAIN HARTE VALLEY
• FOUR SEASON LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (covered)
• Utilities: Generator for electric; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1972
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shallow foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level and sloped-up yard areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Tile countertops
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the street level
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Multiple heating units; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Free-standing wood burning fireplace in the living room; Concrete and vinyl flooring; Tile counters in kitchen; Basement level space; 1-bedroom street-level unit with laundry facility
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.8% in Twain Harte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#260 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Summerville Union High (rural): math 30% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #505 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $199k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.94%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $445,824
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23862 Marshall Way	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-7%)	6mo	$375,000	$233	65
23532 Lakewood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (0%)	14mo	$395,000	$229	64
19160 Middle Camp Sugar Pine Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+10%)	3mo	$445,000	$234	50
23757 Quaker Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,925 (+11%)	23mo	$660,000	$343	49
18925 Sycamore Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-8%)	14mo	$410,000	$258	45
19080 Lizzie Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,641 (-5%)	11mo	$462,500	$282	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,804
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $28,977
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95383

• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,213/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $472	+0% $415	+5% $359	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $329	+0% $415	+5% $502	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $466	base $415	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22870 Black Hawk Dr Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,185	$1.53	24d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   remarks 279-char remark
7. 2026-06-07
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,213
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$451
• After-tax cash flow: $4,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Summerville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638280
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,350
• Composite: 42.89/100
• National rank: #6713
• State rank: #505 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Twain Harte

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #8670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twain Harte, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,663

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.75%
• Current HPI: 137.2564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,213 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.