4529 Route 487 · Mildred, PA 18628

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1948 1.18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

WALK TO STATE GAMELAND #66. Also close to Lake Jean and Ricketts Glen State Park. This home has been used as a full-time home . The 2 bedroom home/ cottage sits on a 1+ acre open and wooded lot, paved driveway, one car garage with a large sun porch/room addition. The 20 x 8 covered front porch needs a new floor so do not walk on it. Many possibilities for this property. Would make a good seasonal rental.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Sun porch
• Paved driveway

Tags

• OPEN AND WOODED LOT
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• SUN PORCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($927/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan County SD (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #387 of 539 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $394 of equity ($622 loan paydown + $-228 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,403 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,212
• Equity at exit: $24,970

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $17,946
• Equity at exit: $29,124

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18628

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-09
   listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 31.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$801
• − Management: −$801
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$136
• After-tax cash flow: $1,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County SD
• NCES district ID: 4222920
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,302
• Composite: 31.94/100
• National rank: #5847
• State rank: #387 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mildred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 152

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,062 people
• By 2030: 5,878 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 5,345 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 4,718 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 3,259 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 2,449 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 3% Slovene 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.2% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+49.3 2012: R+28.3 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 162.6446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-18 Pending — NMPA
• 2025-07-09 Listed $89,900 NMPA

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $873 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.