5530 Holley St · Pea Ridge, FL 32583

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1979 0.34 ac lot Est $251k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 Blocks off of Avalon Blvd close to I-10 makes this a prime location with all the desires of suburban living, and just 15 minutes to the heart of Pensacola! Civilian available VA Assumable mortgage balance making this an excellent long term investment or great opportunity for a below average home payment on your primary residence! 3 Bedrooms and 2 Full Bathrooms with 2 living spaces on over 1/3 of an acre. Seller replacing roof with accepted offer. Home being sold as is. Yard Buildings convey as is.

Key facts

• 2 living spaces
• Roof replacement
• Over 1/3 of an acre

Tags

• 2 LIVING SPACES
• OVER 1/3 OF AN ACRE
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• YARD BUILDINGS CONVEY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Four total parking spaces; Has open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Resale property; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Front porch; Yard building; Paved, county-maintained road access; Central access to lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14' x 10'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10' x 11')
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bonus room; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.5% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#459 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $160k implies a 373% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.19%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5530 Holley St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,336 (0%)	1mo	$160,000	$120	99
5538 Holley St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-4%)	2mo	$235,000	$184	90
3826 Cannon St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-1%)	2mo	$220,000	$166	86
5510 Holley St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+7%)	6mo	$249,900	$175	79
5590 Cyanamid Rd	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-1%)	4mo	$222,000	$168	79
5617 Balsam St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-3%)	3mo	$245,000	$188	78
5597 Crestwood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+12%)	0mo	$325,000	$217	73
5518 Cyanamid Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	8mo	$255,000	$192	71
4073 Huckleberry Finn Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+11%)	5mo	$308,500	$209	62
4079 Huckleberry Finn Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+11%)	6mo	$302,400	$205	61
5341 Delona Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-10%)	7mo	$264,000	$219	54
3609 Pebble Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+9%)	5mo	$256,000	$176	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $20,434
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $86,659
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $769	-5% $724	+0% $679	+5% $633	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $518	-5% $598	+0% $679	+5% $759	+10% $840
Rate	-1.0pp $759	-0.5pp $719	base $679	+0.5pp $637	+1.0pp $595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5604 Shooting Star Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,300	$1.74	15d	1	0.48mi
3984 Pendragon Cir Unit 1 Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	22d	1	0.48mi
4051 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1530	$1,800	$1.18	15d	1	0.52mi
5625 Shooting Star Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	0.52mi
4067 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	15d	1	0.54mi
3863 Pendragon Cir , FL	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,500	$1.58	24d	1	0.57mi
5621 Fulcina Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,900	$1.20	24d	1	0.59mi
4167 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	15d	1	0.61mi
4185 Pendragon Cir Unit Alisha walker Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	15d	1	0.62mi
5320 Cornwall Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	0.76mi
5061 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1581	$1,850	$1.17	24d	1	1.26mi
4413 Oak Vista Ln Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,354	$2.37	15d	18	1.31mi
4355 Park Ct Trlr Park , FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	24d	1	1.32mi
4836 Covenant Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,875	$1.18	15d	1	1.37mi
5157 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,100	$1.17	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical Contingent
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 1980-07-01
   soldstatus $33,800
4. 1980-01-01
   soldstatus $15,000
5. 1978-09-01
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$987/yr (+$82/mo · 290.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $5,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $6,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pea Ridge

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #459
• US rank: #8316

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2565.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $159,900 PARMLS
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,800 Public Records
• 1980-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1978-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.