1012 Rio Frio Dr · Travis Ranch, TX 75126

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2019 6,795 sqft lot $111/sqft · 15% below area Est $353k · 15% under $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideally positioned within the Travis Ranch community, this spacious two-story residence offers a thoughtful blend of openness and separation, creating a home that adapts beautifully to your lifestyle. Step inside to a well-designed floor plan that makes everyday living and entertaining feel effortless, with the living, kitchen, and dining areas seamlessly connected. Upon entry, you’re greeted by a second living area that can easily serve as a home office, playroom, or an additional lounge space. At the heart of the home, the kitchen features generous counter and cabinet space, a central island with a breakfast bar for quick meals, a refrigerator for added convenience, and a walk-in pantry. The desirable first-floor primary suite offers the ultimate sanctuary to unwind at the end of the day, complete with a soaking tub and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you’ll find dedicated game and media rooms, and three generously sized bedrooms, offering flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. Outside, enjoy a private backyard with ample space for family and pets to relax and play. Travis Ranch residents enjoy access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, sparkling pools, children’s splash area, tennis courts, parks and playgrounds, miles of walking trails, and an in-line hockey rink. Check out the interactive Matterport 3D virtual tour.

Key facts

• Central island
• Soaking tub
• Second living area

Tags

• SECOND LIVING AREA
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#983 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,622 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,626
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -14.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1031 Trickham Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,553 (-5%)	2mo	$329,900	$129	80
2321 Mount Olive Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,759 (+2%)	1mo	$329,900	$120	77
1607 Silas Dr	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,559 (-5%)	1mo	$299,700	$117	76
1010 Trickham Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	3,010 (+12%)	2mo	$319,900	$106	73
1205 Templin Ave	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,964 (+10%)	2mo	$326,900	$110	62
5500 Connally Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,706 (+0%)	1mo	$329,900	$122	61
1011 Comfort Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,879 (+7%)	3mo	$269,900	$94	61
4640 Shivers Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,330 (-14%)	1mo	$374,900	$161	59
1026 Comfort Dr	0.59mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,811 (+4%)	1mo	$300,000	$107	56
2042 Crosby Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,518 (-7%)	2mo	$340,000	$135	54
18142 Lakefront Ct	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,859 (+6%)	2mo	$699,000	$244	48
2016 Placerville St	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,321 (-14%)	3mo	$390,738	$168	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,289
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-112,269
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$686 /mo · $8,227/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,061

Max offer price $233,622

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	20d	1	0.12mi
1078 Norias Dr Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2314	$2,500	$1.08	3d	1	0.26mi
2907 Doggett Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2139	$2,950	$1.38	1d	1	0.44mi
2003 Diamondback Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2796	$2,395	$0.86	12d	1	0.47mi
1329 Rosenberg Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	43d	1	0.50mi
2010 Diamondback Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,099	$1.20	24d	1	0.50mi
2258 Templin Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,300	$1.16	18d	1	0.51mi
1105 Concan Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2859	$2,299	$0.80	43d	1	0.54mi
2302 Tombstone Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.57mi
3127 Maverick Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2129	$2,750	$1.29	22d	1	0.60mi
3935 Sidney Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,675	$1.34	43d	1	0.72mi
2115 Callahan Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2700	$2,400	$0.89	43d	1	0.75mi
2415 Anton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,200	$1.16	17d	1	0.85mi
1622 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.86mi
1606 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1791	$3,000	$1.68	24d	1	0.86mi
4031 Yellow Jasmine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2993	$3,500	$1.17	43d	1	0.90mi
5672 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,999	$1.03	7d	1	0.92mi
5681 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,070	$1.06	20d	1	0.96mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,089	$1.13	7d	1	1.16mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	2d	1	1.18mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	24d	1	1.18mi
2130 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2348	$2,550	$1.09	43d	1	1.37mi
2130 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2380	$2,549	$1.07	7d	1	1.37mi
2130 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2380	$2,725	$1.14	17d	1	1.37mi
1549 Sonnet Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	3399	$3,900	$1.15	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-05-01
   price $299,900 1391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1391 chars)

   Ideally positioned within the Travis Ranch community, this spacious two-story residence offers a thoughtful blend of openness and separation, creating a home that adapts beautifully to your lifestyle. Step inside to a well-designed floor plan that makes everyday living and entertaining feel effortless, with the living, kitchen, and dining areas seamlessly connected. Upon entry, you’re greeted by a second living area that can easily serve as a home office, playroom, or an additional lounge space. At the heart of the home, the kitchen features generous counter and cabinet space, a central island with a breakfast bar for quick meals, a refrigerator for added convenience, and a walk-in pantry. The desirable first-floor primary suite offers the ultimate sanctuary to unwind at the end of the day, complete with a soaking tub and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you’ll find dedicated game and media rooms, and three generously sized bedrooms, offering flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. Outside, enjoy a private backyard with ample space for family and pets to relax and play. Travis Ranch residents enjoy access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, sparkling pools, children’s splash area, tennis courts, parks and playgrounds, miles of walking trails, and an in-line hockey rink. Check out the interactive Matterport 3D virtual tour.

10. 2026-04-16
    listed $305,000 Active 1391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1391 chars)

    Ideally positioned within the Travis Ranch community, this spacious two-story residence offers a thoughtful blend of openness and separation, creating a home that adapts beautifully to your lifestyle. Step inside to a well-designed floor plan that makes everyday living and entertaining feel effortless, with the living, kitchen, and dining areas seamlessly connected. Upon entry, you’re greeted by a second living area that can easily serve as a home office, playroom, or an additional lounge space. At the heart of the home, the kitchen features generous counter and cabinet space, a central island with a breakfast bar for quick meals, a refrigerator for added convenience, and a walk-in pantry. The desirable first-floor primary suite offers the ultimate sanctuary to unwind at the end of the day, complete with a soaking tub and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you’ll find dedicated game and media rooms, and three generously sized bedrooms, offering flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. Outside, enjoy a private backyard with ample space for family and pets to relax and play. Travis Ranch residents enjoy access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse with fitness center, sparkling pools, children’s splash area, tennis courts, parks and playgrounds, miles of walking trails, and an in-line hockey rink. Check out the interactive Matterport 3D virtual tour.

11. 2026-04-08
    historical
12. 2026-03-26
    price $305,000
13. 2026-03-07
    price $312,500
14. 2026-02-12
    status Active
15. 2026-01-22
    listed $320,000 Active
16. 2025-12-18
    historical
17. 2025-12-08
    price $320,000
18. 2025-11-07
    price $334,400
19. 2025-07-18
    price $349,000
20. 2025-06-26
    price $349,900
21. 2025-05-15
    price $365,000
22. 2025-03-20
    listed $375,000 Active
23. 2022-03-30
    soldstatus
24. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2022-03-05
    status Pending
26. 2022-02-26
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2022-02-21
    listed $389,900 Active
28. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2019-06-03
    status Pending
30. 2019-05-31
    price $268,290
31. 2019-05-24
    listed $278,290 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,227 · $686/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,227 · $686/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$8,227
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,304
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Travis Ranch

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #983
• US rank: #17440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Travis Ranch, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $312,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $334,400 NTREIS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $349,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $349,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $365,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $375,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-02-21 Listed $389,900 NTREIS
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-06-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-05-31 Price Changed $268,290 NTREIS
• 2019-05-24 Listed $278,290 NTREIS

Property tax history

+49.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,227 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.