625 Fray Vargas Rd · Socorro, TX 79927

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2007 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2007, this single-story home has space and comfort in all the right places! Step inside to a bright and welcoming living room that connects effortlessly to three cozy guest bedrooms and a full bath—perfect for family or visitors. On the opposite side, the home opens up to a dining area and a Texas-sized kitchen that's a true gathering spot, overlooking a second living space for easy entertaining. Need even more room? You'll love the third living area or bonus room—ideal for a home office, gym, game room, or creative space! The main suite and fourth bedroom sits privately on the west side of the home, complete with a generous bathroom and ample closet space. Outside, enj

Key facts

• Texas-sized kitchen
• Bright living room
• Third living area

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• TEXAS-SIZED KITCHEN
• THIRD LIVING AREA
• SPRAWLING HALF-ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-878/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Campestre El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 495 students, 91% FRL); Socorro Middle (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 540 students, 92% FRL); Socorro H S (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,484 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 66% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $140k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,273 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,749
• Equity at exit: $34,241

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $13,754
• Equity at exit: $36,337

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,564/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $131,273

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-27
   listed $140,000 Active
4. 2025-12-04
   historical
5. 2025-11-02
   listed $166,000 Active
6. 2018-12-06
   historical
7. 2007-05-14
   soldstatus
8. 2002-03-25
   listed $65,500
9. 1997-09-04
   soldstatus $25,450
10. 1997-08-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,564 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,564 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$6,564
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$3,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$725
• After-tax cash flow: $-153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Socorro, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+450.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $140,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $166,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-12-06 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2007-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-25 Listed $65,500 GEPARMLS
• 1997-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,450 Public Records
• 1997-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,564 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.