821 Gulf Pavilion Dr #106 · Naples Park, FL 34108

$529,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · Condo public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1988 $729/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated three-bedroom, two-bath condominium offering effortless Naples living just minutes from Vanderbilt Beach, shopping and dining. Ideally near the vibrant Mercato district, luxury resorts, fitness and Waterside Shops, this residence blends comfort and convenience with a sought-after coastal lifestyle. Inside, a spacious open floor plan creates seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen features quartz countertops and updated finishes, while generously sized bedrooms offer ample closet space. The primary suite includes an updated bath with walk-in shower, and the second bath is fully renovated. Recent upgrades include impact glass windows and slid

Key facts

• Impact glass windows
• Updated kitchen
• In unit laundry

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• IMPACT GLASS WINDOWS
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• HEATED POOL
• BIKING AND JOGGING PATHS

Property features AI

Other

• Location: Unit 106 in Pavilion Club (821 Gulf Pavilion Dr #106, Naples, FL 34108); Lot unit 106, section 33
• Multi-unit info: 1 unit per floor; 156 units in complex; 12 units in building; Single-floor unit (1 floor)

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (on-site management); Quarterly condo fee; Condo fee $2,187 quarterly; Total annual recurring HOA fees $8,748; Total one-time fees $150; HOA maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, BBQ/picnic area, bike storage, shopping access, sidewalks, and underground utilities; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned covered carport space (detached); Deeded parking; Guest parking available; Common parking
• Security: Entry keypad
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1-3 stories); End-unit; Rear exposure faces north; Located in PAVILION CLUB development; Entry possession at closing
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Impact-resistant windows; Built in 1988
• Exterior features: Privacy wall; Private road; Automatic sprinkler (central irrigation); Landscaped area view; Corner unit

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Breakfast bar and formal dining area; Cooktop (electric); Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; First floor bedroom; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Foyer; Smoke detectors; Great room floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $529k).
• Recommended offer: $481k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,934/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($481k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $529k implies a 457% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $481,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-12,399
• Equity at exit: $78,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $186,867
• Equity at exit: $45,738

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34108

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,730/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$729
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,246
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,107

Max offer price $529,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $953	-5% $803	+0% $654	+5% $504	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $419	+0% $654	+5% $888	+10% $1,123
Rate	-1.0pp $920	-0.5pp $788	base $654	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
822 Gulf Pavilion Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$6,500	$5.10	24d	1	0.04mi
815 Gulf Pavilion Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$3,500	$2.97	24d	1	0.05mi
749 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1417	$3,750	$2.65	14d	1	0.08mi
737 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$12,750	$8.14	24d	1	0.10mi
834 Gulf Pavilion Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$5,000	$3.30	22d	1	0.10mi
834 Gulf Pavilion Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$8,000	$5.28	24d	1	0.10mi
840 Gulf Pavilion Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,500	$4.66	24d	1	0.14mi
829 Reef Point Cir Unit 46 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	24d	1	0.16mi
845 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$4,200	$3.09	24d	1	0.19mi
857 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	24d	1	0.19mi
881 Gulf Pavilion Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$7,500	$4.95	24d	1	0.21mi
719 Reef Point Cir #13 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$8,000	$5.96	24d	1	0.21mi
736 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1820	$3,500	$1.92	24d	1	0.22mi
791 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$9,000	$6.43	24d	1	0.23mi
799 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$5,000	$2.99	24d	1	0.23mi
714 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$8,500	$6.31	14d	1	0.23mi
794 95th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$6,500	$3.60	24d	1	0.26mi
757 95th Ave N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,150	$1.95	24d	1	0.29mi
795 Bentwater Cir #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1831	$15,000	$8.19	24d	1	0.32mi
768 96th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$11,500	$6.63	24d	1	0.32mi
717 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.32mi
661 Windsurf Ln Unit A-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,500	$5.56	14d	1	0.33mi
805 Bentwater Cir #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,500	$7.92	24d	1	0.33mi
8385 Excalibur Cir Unit G3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$10,000	$7.24	24d	1	0.33mi
655 Windsurf Ln Unit 1546357P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$3,376	$2.34	14d	1	0.33mi
650 93rd Ave N Unit 1073498P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$5,136	$3.56	14d	1	0.34mi
682 95th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$12,500	$7.81	24d	1	0.35mi
671 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$6,800	$4.64	24d	1	0.36mi
649 Beachwalk Cir Unit C101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	14d	1	0.36mi
8405 Excalibur Cir Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$9,000	$6.51	24d	1	0.38mi
643 Beachwalk Cir Unit D-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,950	$4.41	14d	1	0.39mi
522 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$6,000	$4.42	24d	1	0.40mi
793 97th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$10,500	$6.18	24d	1	0.41mi
837 Sailaway Ln #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,000	$7.65	24d	1	0.42mi
837 Sailaway Ln #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$11,500	$6.75	24d	1	0.42mi
8415 Excalibur Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1522	$11,160	$7.33	24d	1	0.42mi
549 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	24d	1	0.43mi
831 Sailaway Ln #203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$13,000	$6.98	24d	1	0.43mi
831 Sailaway Ln #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,000	$7.65	24d	1	0.43mi
9123 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1267	$14,000	$11.05	14d	6	0.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $729 · $8,748/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $529,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $529,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $529,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $529,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $529,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $529,000
16. 2026-02-18
    listed $540,000 Active
17. 1997-06-11
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,730 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,391 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$3,730
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,697
• − Management: −$5,697
• − HOA: −$8,748
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable loss: −$326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$78
• After-tax cash flow: $7,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples Park

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #696
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,237
• Household income: $119,212
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -587.97%
• Current HPI: 275.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.74%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+456.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $529,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $540,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1997-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,730 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.