12599 Maple Dr · Grayhawk, MO 63670

$19,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 904 sqft · Other public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1969 0.64 ac lot $22/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on just over half an acre, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers space to breathe and room to create your ideal retreat. With a generous lot and endless potential, this property is a perfect canvas for a personalized escape where you can truly unwind once complete. The expansive outdoor space provides the perfect backdrop for relaxation, entertaining, or quiet evenings spent unwinding in your own private setting. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

Key facts

• Private setting
• Half an acre
• 0.64 acre lot

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR SPACE
• PRIVATE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($879 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#677 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ste. Genevieve County R-II (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Ste. Genevieve County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ste. Genevieve County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $18,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.01%
• DSCR: 6.07
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,142
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -86.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $30,521
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.58×
• Total profit: $70,114
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63670

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $208

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Nestled on just over half an acre, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers space to breathe and room to create your ideal retreat. With a generous lot and endless potential, this property is a perfect canvas for a personalized escape where you can truly unwind once complete. The expansive outdoor space provides the perfect backdrop for relaxation, entertaining, or quiet evenings spent unwinding in your own private setting. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

2. 2026-04-16
   price $19,900 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Nestled on just over half an acre, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers space to breathe and room to create your ideal retreat. With a generous lot and endless potential, this property is a perfect canvas for a personalized escape where you can truly unwind once complete. The expansive outdoor space provides the perfect backdrop for relaxation, entertaining, or quiet evenings spent unwinding in your own private setting. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

3. 2026-02-16
   price $21,000 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Nestled on just over half an acre, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers space to breathe and room to create your ideal retreat. With a generous lot and endless potential, this property is a perfect canvas for a personalized escape where you can truly unwind once complete. The expansive outdoor space provides the perfect backdrop for relaxation, entertaining, or quiet evenings spent unwinding in your own private setting. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

4. 2026-01-15
   listed $25,000 Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Nestled on just over half an acre, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers space to breathe and room to create your ideal retreat. With a generous lot and endless potential, this property is a perfect canvas for a personalized escape where you can truly unwind once complete. The expansive outdoor space provides the perfect backdrop for relaxation, entertaining, or quiet evenings spent unwinding in your own private setting. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

5. 2025-11-10
   price $29,700
6. 2025-10-31
   status Active
7. 2025-10-16
   price $34,800
8. 2025-09-30
   listed $37,100 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$843
• − Management: −$843
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $6,438
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,545
• After-tax cash flow: $4,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ste. Genevieve County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2929370
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,013
• Composite: 40.83/100
• National rank: #3632
• State rank: #59 of 324 in MO

Livability — Grayhawk

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #22441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayhawk, MO
• Population (ZIP): 12,294

Population outlook (Ste. Genevieve County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,453 people
• By 2030: 17,119 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 16,361 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 15,719 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 14,849 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 13,504 · -22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ste. Genevieve

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.0) · D 26.9% · R 71.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -59.2pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -45.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.0 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.70%
• Current HPI: 193.0646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-46.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $19,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $21,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $25,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $29,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $34,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listed $37,100 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.