1456 E Philadelphia #109 · Ontario, CA 91761

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $151k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your turnkey dream home in the desirable 55+ pet-friendly community of Rancho Ontario! This fully renovated 3-bedroom home offers over 1,500 sq ft of stylish, open-concept living. Step in from your enclosed patio into a bright, inviting space featuring a brand-new kitchen with stainless steel appliances—including a refrigerator, stove/oven, and dishwasher—plus a washer and dryer included for your convenience. Enjoy sleek luxury vinyl plank flooring, beautifully upgraded bathrooms, and a fresh, modern feel with new light fixtures and ceiling fans throughout, creating a clean, sleek, and cohesive look. The spacious primary suite includes its own private bath for adde

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1998
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Rancho Ontario; Pets allowed with breed restrictions
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,800
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required for park residency

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport; Carport available; On-site parking in Rancho Ontario park
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Mobile home (13' x 56') remains on site; Double-wide body type; Turnkey, updated/remodeled condition; One story
• Construction: Model 4523A mobile home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered patio; Community pool; Dog park in community; Parking accessibility features

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range and gas oven; Dishwasher; Quartz counters; Remodeled kitchen
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main floor; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Single-level home; Front door entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 2.7% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#435 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Ontario-Montclair (urban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.03%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 424	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	2mo	$80,000	$52	95
1456 E Philadelphia #372	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$96,000	$60	95
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 444	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	11mo	$150,000	$96	90
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 390	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,469 (-6%)	1mo	$180,000	$123	88
1456 E Philadelphia #24	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	5mo	$130,000	$85	87
1456 E Philadelphia St #101	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+2%)	15mo	$186,000	$116	84
1456 E Philadelphia #2	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-9%)	3mo	$187,000	$131	82
1456 E PHILADELPHIA St #431	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+3%)	16mo	$148,000	$92	82
1456 E Philadelphia St #230	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-5%)	15mo	$120,000	$80	80
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 344	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+6%)	12mo	$140,000	$84	79
1456 E Philadelphia St #300	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	15mo	$164,900	$115	74
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 320	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	14mo	$195,000	$112	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $69,690
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $183,100
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91761

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $572/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $1,598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,703	-5% $1,651	+0% $1,598	+5% $1,546	+10% $1,494
Rent	-10% $1,329	-5% $1,464	+0% $1,598	+5% $1,733	+10% $1,868
Rate	-1.0pp $1,692	-0.5pp $1,646	base $1,598	+0.5pp $1,551	+1.0pp $1,502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 E Philadelphia St Ontario, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$3,207	$3.55	0d	13	0.47mi
2632 S Augusta Ave Ontario, CA	4.0	2.5	1983	$4,500	$2.27	44d	1	0.58mi
2432 S Garfield Pl Ontario, CA	3.0	2.0	1118	$3,150	$2.82	0d	1	0.66mi
2631 S Cucamonga Ave Ontario, CA	3.0	2.5	1726	$3,400	$1.97	44d	1	0.71mi
2815 S Augusta Ave Ontario, CA	4.0	2.0	1524	$3,600	$2.36	0d	1	0.77mi
2042 S Bon View Ave Unit C Ontario, CA	2.0	2.5	1364	$2,700	$1.98	0d	1	0.85mi
629 E Madeleine Privado Ontario, CA	3.0	2.5	1465	$3,350	$2.29	44d	1	1.29mi
629 E Madeleine Privado Ontario, CA	3.0	2.5	1465	$3,250	$2.22	22d	1	1.29mi
2057 S Cherry Ave Ontario, CA	4.0	2.0	1236	$3,500	$2.83	0d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $199,999 Active
16. 2026-04-17
    historical $199,999
17. 2025-12-16
    historical
18. 2025-12-11
    status Active
19. 2025-12-11
    price $110,000
20. 2025-11-20
    status Pending Sale
21. 2025-11-06
    price $139,999
22. 2025-09-05
    price $144,500
23. 2025-09-05
    status Active
24. 2025-09-04
    historical
25. 2025-08-22
    price $154,999
26. 2025-08-05
    price $157,999
27. 2025-06-06
    listed $159,999 Active
28. 2025-05-29
    historical
29. 2025-04-12
    price $173,000
30. 2024-12-18
    price $183,000
31. 2024-06-20
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$834/yr (+$70/mo · 145.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$572
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,273
• − Management: −$3,273
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $17,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,110
• After-tax cash flow: $15,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ontario-Montclair
• NCES district ID: 0628470
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,668
• Composite: 36.57/100
• National rank: #9282
• State rank: #731 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ontario

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #14949

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ontario, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 183,440
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,935
• Household income: $100,578
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1853.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 23% White 15% Asian 9% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 41% Chinese 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.91%
• Current HPI: 400.5674
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $199,999 CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $199,999 CRMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $139,999 CRMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $144,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $154,999 CRMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $157,999 CRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $159,999 CRMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $173,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $183,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $190,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $572 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.