12888 Scearcy Trl SW · East Gull Lake, MN 56473

$109,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1977 3,746 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hard to find 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in the country, yet not far from town. Large Deck, fenced-in portion of yard, nearly an acre of land among the pines, updated home with huge insulated garage, located on a dead-end road.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Large decks
• Detached garage

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE DECKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished living area approximately 1,260 sq ft

Exterior

• Parking: Insulated attached garage for 3 cars; Garage approximately 24 x 48 with 8-ft high doors (16-ft width)
• Utilities: Well water with 4-inch submersible pump; Private sewer with tank and drainage field; Electric and natural gas available
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; One story; Corner lot (lot dimensions 189 x 210 x 188 x 218)
• Construction: Rubber roof; Foundation area approximately 1,260
• Exterior features: Metal exterior; Partial fencing; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with a 17x13 layout
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Window air-conditioning units
• Interior features: Open kitchen/dining area; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 0.6% in East Gull Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#438 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Pillager Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #146 of 301 in MN (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.41%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $36,732
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $102,130
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56473

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $474/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Active 152-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 152-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $109,900 Active 152-char remark
4. 2024-04-15
   soldstatus $105,000
5. 2024-04-09
   soldstatus $105,000 Sold 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Hard to find 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in the country, yet not far from town. Large Deck, fenced-in portion of yard, nearly an acre of land among the pines, updated home with huge insulated garage, located on a dead-end road.

6. 2024-04-06
   status Pending 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Hard to find 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in the country, yet not far from town. Large Deck, fenced-in portion of yard, nearly an acre of land among the pines, updated home with huge insulated garage, located on a dead-end road.

7. 2024-03-06
   historical Contingent - Subject to Financing 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Hard to find 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in the country, yet not far from town. Large Deck, fenced-in portion of yard, nearly an acre of land among the pines, updated home with huge insulated garage, located on a dead-end road.

8. 2024-02-24
   price $119,900 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Hard to find 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in the country, yet not far from town. Large Deck, fenced-in portion of yard, nearly an acre of land among the pines, updated home with huge insulated garage, located on a dead-end road.

9. 2024-02-15
   listed $129,900 Active 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Hard to find 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in the country, yet not far from town. Large Deck, fenced-in portion of yard, nearly an acre of land among the pines, updated home with huge insulated garage, located on a dead-end road.

10. 2021-06-21
    soldstatus $102,500
11. 2021-06-18
    soldstatus $102,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Beautiful corner lot with well maintained manufactured home and a spacious 24x48 detached 3-car garage! Just a few miles west of Baxter this is the ideal location for living both the "city" and "country" life. This single level home sits on close to an acre of land with yard space and mature tress. With 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and laundry room all on the main floor, this is the perfect place for rental income potential or to simply enjoying time with the family as a vacation spot in the Northern MN Lakes Area. Would also make a great starter home! Pillager school district.

12. 2021-05-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Beautiful corner lot with well maintained manufactured home and a spacious 24x48 detached 3-car garage! Just a few miles west of Baxter this is the ideal location for living both the "city" and "country" life. This single level home sits on close to an acre of land with yard space and mature tress. With 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and laundry room all on the main floor, this is the perfect place for rental income potential or to simply enjoying time with the family as a vacation spot in the Northern MN Lakes Area. Would also make a great starter home! Pillager school district.

13. 2021-05-04
    historical Contingent - Inspection

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Beautiful corner lot with well maintained manufactured home and a spacious 24x48 detached 3-car garage! Just a few miles west of Baxter this is the ideal location for living both the "city" and "country" life. This single level home sits on close to an acre of land with yard space and mature tress. With 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and laundry room all on the main floor, this is the perfect place for rental income potential or to simply enjoying time with the family as a vacation spot in the Northern MN Lakes Area. Would also make a great starter home! Pillager school district.

14. 2021-05-02
    listed $99,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Beautiful corner lot with well maintained manufactured home and a spacious 24x48 detached 3-car garage! Just a few miles west of Baxter this is the ideal location for living both the "city" and "country" life. This single level home sits on close to an acre of land with yard space and mature tress. With 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and laundry room all on the main floor, this is the perfect place for rental income potential or to simply enjoying time with the family as a vacation spot in the Northern MN Lakes Area. Would also make a great starter home! Pillager school district.

15. 2020-10-28
    soldstatus $77,000
16. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $77,000 Sold
17. 2020-09-15
    status Pending
18. 2020-09-11
    historical Contingent - Inspection
19. 2020-08-31
    listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $474 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 79.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$474
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $8,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,160
• After-tax cash flow: $8,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pillager Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728350
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,200
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3577
• State rank: #146 of 301 in MN

Livability — East Gull Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #10401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.65%
• Current HPI: 233.7849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-09 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2021-06-18 Sold (MLS) $102,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-02 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $77,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-11 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Listed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $474 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.