5521 Sapphire Cir · Lake City, GA 30294

$239,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2004 727 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained home in an established Ellenwood community, offering a clean, functional layout and solid overall condition. This property has been kept in good shape and presents a strong opportunity for a buyer looking for something move-in ready with long-term upside. The home features a practical floor plan with comfortable living spaces, good natural light, and a layout that works well for both owner-occupants and those looking to add to a portfolio. The structure is in good condition, and the home shows well, making it easy to walk, show, and move forward with. Located in a convenient area with access to major roads, shopping, and everyday essentials, this is a straightforward propert

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No lot details available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator; No additional kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; Bedrooms have no special features listed
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (half bath located on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One factory-built fireplace; No shared/common walls; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Hall laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($122/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thurgood Marshall Elementary School (math 30% / reading 10%, grade F, #865 of 1,228 statewide, top 71%, 793 students, 90% FRL); Morrow Middle School (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #368 of 470 statewide, top 79%, 779 students, 90% FRL); Morrow High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,980 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $240k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,548 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,235
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5502 Sapphire Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-2%)	10mo	$250,000	$166	78
5774 Springfield Pl	0.63mi	4/3.5	1,561 (+2%)	1mo	$237,000	$152	65
2313 Poplar Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,324 (-14%)	1mo	$95,000	$72	61
2265 Hammond Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-1%)	14mo	$252,000	$165	60
5761 Northfield Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-0%)	9mo	$230,000	$151	59
5420 Herndon Blvd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-10%)	3mo	$231,000	$168	46
2689 Lolli Ct	0.72mi	3/4.5 (-1)	1,516 (-1%)	9mo	$270,000	$178	46
5712 Wesson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-8%)	7mo	$244,900	$174	45
2436 Rex Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$240,000	$167	44
5725 Twain Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (-6%)	11mo	$215,000	$149	41
2658 Deann Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,333 (-13%)	9mo	$245,000	$184	32
2520 Hartford Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (+14%)	13mo	$229,900	$132	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,632
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,110
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,490/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $78	+0% $10	+5% $-58	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-77	+0% $10	+5% $97	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $71	base $10	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2260 Hammond Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	46d	1	0.34mi
5720 Buck Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,850	$1.50	26d	1	0.36mi
5731 Buck Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,525	$1.23	15d	1	0.38mi
2271 Wentworth Park Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1705	$2,119	$1.24	19d	1	0.50mi
5704 Wesson Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,710	$1.16	46d	1	0.53mi
2603 Old Rex Morrow Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,510	$1.39	46d	1	0.56mi
2617 Old Rex Morrow Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,950	$1.08	15d	1	0.60mi
2314 Shady Dr Morrow, GA	4.0	2.5	1705	$2,179	$1.28	14d	1	0.63mi
2292 Shady Dr Morrow, GA	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,199	$1.28	1d	1	0.67mi
5789 Colt Ct Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1877	$2,020	$1.08	46d	1	0.68mi
5762 Northspring Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,705	$1.08	15d	1	0.75mi
5868 Dan Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	46d	1	0.79mi
2445 Rex Rd Ellenwood, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$1,569	$1.37	1d	10	0.79mi
2710 Luke Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2213	$2,435	$1.10	46d	1	0.81mi
6010 Fairfield Dr Morrow, GA	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,841	$1.48	5d	1	0.92mi
6043 Deerfield Ct Morrow, GA	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,741	$1.27	1d	1	1.01mi
6068 Monica Dr Morrow, GA	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,700	$1.40	24d	1	1.09mi
4974 Summersun Dr Morrow, GA	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,345	$1.21	0d	1	1.12mi
2941 Partin Pl Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,155	$1.15	17d	1	1.18mi
2986 Bunchberry Ct Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,331	$1.10	26d	1	1.28mi
6137 Harvard Ct Morrow, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,531	$1.16	1d	1	1.37mi
5969 Twilight Trl Morrow, GA	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,015	$1.07	6d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $239,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on marketlisting id $239,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   price $239,900 893-char remark
6. 2026-05-06
   price $239,900 893-char remark
7. 2026-04-01
   status Active 893-char remark
8. 2026-03-11
   listed $249,900 Active 893-char remark
9. 2026-03-11
   listed $249,900 New 893-char remark
10. 2026-03-03
    historical $249,900 893-char remark
11. 2026-03-02
    historical $249,900 893-char remark
12. 2024-02-27
    historical $1,795
13. 2024-01-13
    listed $1,795
14. 2022-11-12
    historical
15. 2015-07-13
    soldstatus $106,000
16. 2015-06-06
    price $106,000
17. 2015-05-22
    soldstatus $106,000 Sold
18. 2015-04-04
    status Under Contract
19. 2015-04-04
    price $109,000
20. 2015-03-27
    listed $109,000 New
21. 2003-10-08
    soldstatus $130,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,490 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,490 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$4,490
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$930
• After-tax cash flow: $1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #7863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Coming Soon $239,900 FMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $239,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $249,900 FMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-03 Coming Soon — GAMLS
• 2026-03-02 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $1,795 GAMLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed for Rent $1,795 GAMLS
• 2022-11-12 Rental Removed — FMLS
• 2015-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-06 Price Changed $106,000 GAMLS
• 2015-05-22 Sold (MLS) $106,000 GAMLS
• 2015-04-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2015-04-04 Price Changed $109,000 GAMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listed $109,000 GAMLS
• 2003-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $130,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,490 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.