813 Parade St · Erie, PA 16503

$119,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,732 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1897 3,511 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic 2 unit with tons of updates. Including roof, some windows, flooring, paint, plumbing, one furnace. Live in one and rent the other or start cash flowing.

Key facts

• 3,511 sq ft lot
• Built 1897
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two rental units with reported rents: one at $850, one at $950

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; C-4 zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Built on standard foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Two 1-bath units
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (in one unit); Range/Oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $577/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $119k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.55%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,496
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 E 14th St	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,522 (-8%)	4mo	$70,000	$28	62
616-618 East 6th St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,686 (-2%)	20mo	$80,000	$30	60
737 E 12th St	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,842 (+4%)	0mo	$58,000	$20	59
620-622 East 6th St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,580 (-6%)	20mo	$80,000	$31	54
742 E 10th St	0.47mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,514 (-8%)	8mo	$60,000	$24	53
646 E 8th St	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,347 (-14%)	4mo	$60,000	$26	52
743 E 13th St	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,640 (-3%)	13mo	$59,000	$22	52
923 E 7th St	0.68mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,852 (+4%)	11mo	$80,150	$28	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $105,969
• Equity at exit: $72,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.65×
• Total profit: $254,750
• Equity at exit: $130,286

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,582/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $1,154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,020

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 48%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,480
Total (2 units)			$2,480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	1.19mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 396-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,582
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $12,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,047
• After-tax cash flow: $10,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+198.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $119,000 GEBOR
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $68,000 GEBOR
• 2023-08-18 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $70,000 GEBOR
• 2023-07-17 Price Changed $84,900 GEBOR
• 2023-07-16 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2023-05-25 Listed $90,000 GEBOR
• 2021-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-10 Sold (MLS) $35,000 GEBOR
• 2021-07-14 Listed $39,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,582 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.