7303 Winter Song Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$239,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2006 4,660 sqft lot $116/sqft · 14% below area Est $280k · 14% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This four-bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located in the established Forest Crossing neighborhood. Designed with a traditional and practical layout, the interior features a classic flow that provides distinct spaces for living and dining. The kitchen is equipped with durable laminate countertops and sleek black appliances, offering a clean and cohesive look for the home chef. The residence is designed for comfort and efficiency, ensuring every square foot is utilized effectively. The four spacious bedrooms provide ample room for a variety of lifestyles and needs, as well as a bonus room upstairs, perfect as a home office or study. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Bonus room upstairs
• 4,660 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DURABLE LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• SLEEK BLACK APPLIANCES
• BONUS ROOM UPSTAIRS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Crest Management Company; Annual HOA fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2006
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 12); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 13 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($908/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 579 students, 28% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,568
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -14.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6806 Woodland Oaks	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,005 (-3%)	0mo	$325,000	$162	77
33127 Cottonwood Bnd	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,834 (-12%)	1mo	$225,000	$123	71
7119 Durango Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,906 (-8%)	6mo	$299,000	$157	60
6846 Durango Creek Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-8%)	3mo	$285,000	$149	59
723 Hinsdale	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,841 (-11%)	3mo	$299,000	$162	59
6627 Woodland Oaks	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,276 (+10%)	0mo	$305,000	$134	57
7127 Hayden Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,869 (-10%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	57
7407 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,874 (-10%)	4mo	$399,000	$213	51
6919 Hayden Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,322 (+12%)	3mo	$425,000	$183	50
7022 Dillon Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-10%)	4mo	$300,000	$161	48
6622 Dillon Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,896 (-9%)	0mo	$318,000	$168	45
7402 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-12%)	6mo	$339,999	$186	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $129,416
• Equity at exit: $216,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $366,344
• Equity at exit: $466,073

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,604/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,253

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $144	+0% $76	+5% $8	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-17	+0% $76	+5% $168	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $137	base $76	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	44d	1	0.14mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	0.19mi
33139 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.08mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	18d	1	1.08mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	0d	6	1.08mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	23d	1	1.08mi
33123 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.09mi
33130 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.10mi
33150 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.11mi
33146 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.11mi
3969 Eagle Nest Lake Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	2986	$2,895	$0.97	13d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $239,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $255,000 Active 673-char remark
17. 2025-04-03
    historical $1,695
18. 2025-02-28
    price $1,695
19. 2024-12-20
    price $1,750
20. 2024-12-18
    listed $1,955
21. 2024-11-07
    historical
22. 2024-10-31
    listed $249,900 Active
23. 2024-10-30
    historical
24. 2024-10-02
    price $249,900
25. 2024-09-10
    price $254,900
26. 2024-08-12
    price $259,900
27. 2024-07-25
    price $269,900
28. 2024-06-20
    price $274,900
29. 2024-06-07
    listed $279,900 Active
30. 2015-03-26
    soldstatus
31. 2015-03-25
    historical
32. 2015-03-25
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2015-03-10
    status Pending, Continue to Show
34. 2015-03-02
    status Option Pending
35. 2015-02-26
    listed $159,900 Active
36. 2007-01-03
    soldstatus
37. 2001-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,604 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,604 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$4,604
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$721
• After-tax cash flow: $1,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+53.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Rental Removed $1,695 RENTLY
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $1,695 RENTLY
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $1,750 RENTLY
• 2024-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,955 RENTLY
• 2024-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2015-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-26 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2007-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,604 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.