3785 Lunn Dr · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37218

$239,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1980 0.36 ac lot Est $329k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect for someone looking to make their own. 4 bedrooms, 1 ½ baths, laundry room, hardwood floors, replacement windows, and HVAC and a concrete patio

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 129 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,250 square feet; Property type listed as Residential; Year built listed as existing
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking reported; No total parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.36 acres; Lot dimensions 90 x 172

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cooktop; Carpet flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 438 students, 0% FRL); Whites Creek High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 587 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,491/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $240k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3785 Lunn Dr	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,250 (0%)	1mo	$220,000	$176	99
638 Putnam Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (0%)	6mo	$327,500	$262	71
3880 Lunn Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,242 (-1%)	8mo	$165,000	$133	69
3883 Lunn Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,242 (-1%)	7mo	$270,000	$217	68
3717 Fairview Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,290 (+3%)	4mo	$369,000	$286	64
4016 Meadow Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+4%)	5mo	$342,500	$263	60
552 Judd Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	14mo	$300,000	$250	60
568 Phipps Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,426 (+14%)	8mo	$375,000	$263	55
3329 Kings Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (-11%)	1mo	$239,500	$216	46
4220 Home Haven Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (+7%)	10mo	$355,800	$267	42
373 Kingview Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,425 (+14%)	4mo	$375,000	$263	41
4009 Fairview Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-12%)	12mo	$364,900	$332	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-17,612
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,904
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37218

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,930/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4064 Cedar Cir Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,400	$1.60	14d	1	0.40mi
923 Millstream Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,300	$1.53	11d	1	0.62mi
4010 Tucker Rd Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	21d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   status Active
3. 2026-05-01
   historical
4. 2026-04-16
   price $239,900
5. 2026-03-30
   status Active
6. 2026-03-21
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-03-20
   status Active
8. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2026-01-09
   listed $290,000 Active
10. 1980-06-01
    soldstatus $75,000
11. 1980-06-01
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,930
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $1,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $5,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,292
• Household income: $61,919
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.30%
• Current HPI: 315.1728
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+219.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $239,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $290,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,930 · +20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.