302 Elm St · Martin, TN 38237

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 8,280 sqft lot Est $147k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom, two full bath home currently used as a rental.

Key facts

• 8,280 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.0% in Martin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#15 in TN, #4,330 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Weakley County (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 139 in TN (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Weakley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weakley County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $100k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.65%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,625
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Summer St	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,359 (+7%)	6mo	$156,000	$115	76
526 Fonville St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,287 (+1%)	16mo	$130,000	$101	70
535 Fonville St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+2%)	13mo	$160,000	$123	64
301 Fonville Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,327 (+4%)	23mo	$154,000	$116	64
434 Parrish St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+5%)	10mo	$128,500	$96	56
226 Marshall St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+12%)	2mo	$85,000	$60	55
110 Carter St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-8%)	8mo	$100,000	$86	46
120 Crestview St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,121 (-12%)	14mo	$147,000	$131	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $15,912
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $55,079
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38237

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $313/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-08-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-28
   listed $99,900 Active
3. 2024-07-08
   soldstatus Closed
4. 2007-05-11
   soldstatus $46,600
5. 2001-09-07
   soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $313 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 126.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$313
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $4,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weakley County
• NCES district ID: 4704470
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,389
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6434
• State rank: #32 of 139 in TN

Livability — Martin

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4330

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Martin, TN
• County: Weakley County · 15,627 people
• City population: 15,627
• Metro: Martin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,627
• Household income: $51,670
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 636.0

Population outlook (Weakley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,862 people
• By 2030: 30,688 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 27,935 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 25,485 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 21,080 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 18,214 · -42.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weakley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.3% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.1pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.7 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+31.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.05%
• Current HPI: 233.76
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Martin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+127.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Pending — RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-28 Listed $99,900 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-07-08 Sold (MLS) — RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $46,600 Public Records
• 2001-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $313 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.