515 J St · Aurora, NE 68818

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1975 4,356 sqft lot Est $214k · 37% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

Key facts

• Basement has space
• Fenced backyard
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• BASEMENT HAS SPACE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES PROVIDE SHADE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in NE, #1,333 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Aurora Public Schools (town): math 53% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #29 of 111 in NE (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Aurora Preschool (70 students, 33% FRL); Aurora Middle School (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C+, #43 of 128 statewide, top 36%, 269 students, 34% FRL); Aurora High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #107 of 261 statewide, top 52%, 374 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,200 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.54%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,786
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 10th St	0.30mi	2/2.5	1,952 (-2%)	0mo	$227,000	$116	80
712 L St	0.14mi	2/2.0	2,220 (+11%)	7mo	$210,000	$95	69
303 M St	0.26mi	2/2.0	2,102 (+5%)	17mo	$125,000	$59	65
420 12th St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,096 (+5%)	0mo	$225,000	$107	61
707 N St	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,760 (-12%)	7mo	$150,000	$85	57
809 M St	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,705 (-15%)	10mo	$205,000	$120	54
106 O St	0.39mi	2/2.0	2,150 (+8%)	21mo	$222,000	$103	52
1314 15th St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (-4%)	20mo	$218,000	$114	38
1418 L St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (-12%)	12mo	$270,000	$153	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-28,981
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-34,454
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68818

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,389/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $115,199

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-73	+0% $-112	+5% $-150	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-150	+0% $-112	+5% $-73	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-77	base $-112	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-19
   soldstatus $134,044
2. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
3. 2024-07-08
   soldstatus $120,000
4. 2024-06-24
   soldstatus $120,000 Closed 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

5. 2024-06-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

6. 2024-06-17
   status Pending 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

7. 2024-05-20
   price $134,900 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

8. 2024-05-20
   price $134,900

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

9. 2024-04-30
   listed $139,900 Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

10. 2024-04-30
    listed $139,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Adorable ranch house in Aurora with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1 car garage. Basement has tons of space plus a non-confirming bedroom. Fenced backyard and mature trees which provide lots of shade. House is being sold as-is and ready for someone who wants to make this house their new home.

11. 2024-04-01
    soldstatus $108,778

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,334 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$945/yr (+$79/mo · 68.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,389
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$3,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$899
• After-tax cash flow: $-439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3103360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,532
• Composite: 48.68/100
• National rank: #2103
• State rank: #29 of 111 in NE

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, NE
• Population (ZIP): 5,596

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,378 people
• By 2030: 9,448 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 9,536 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 9,575 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 10,358 · +10.4%
• By 2100: 10,504 · +12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.2% · R 79.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -42.9pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+50.7 2008: R+42.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.35%
• Current HPI: 249.0646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+23.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $134,044 Public Records
• 2026-02-11 Pending — GIBOR
• 2024-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-24 Sold (MLS) $120,000 GMNMLS
• 2024-06-17 Pending — GIBOR
• 2024-06-17 Pending — GMNMLS
• 2024-05-20 Price Changed $134,900 GMNMLS
• 2024-05-20 Price Changed $134,900 GIBOR
• 2024-04-30 Listed $139,900 GMNMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listed $139,900 GIBOR
• 2024-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $108,778 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,389 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.