2045 Baxter Mills Rd · Franklinville, NY 14743

$69,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1995 12 ac lot $38/sqft · 17% above area Est $59k · 17% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Secluded opportunity on a quiet dead-end road. This two-story frame home is situated on over 12 surveyed acres and offers excellent potential for a new build, recreational property, or investment. The existing structure is not considered salvageable and is best suited for removal. The land is the true highlight, featuring a mix of mature hardwoods, rolling terrain, and a quality stand of red pine. The property borders a back slough of Ischua Creek, a New York State stocked trout stream known for fishing and year-round outdoor recreation. The acreage provides privacy and multiple potential building sites, making it well-suited for a cabin, primary residence, or weekend retreat. Strong wildlife presence in the area adds to its appeal for hunting and outdoor use. Located near a variety of recreational amenities, including Campground Adventures (offering glamping and kayak rentals), Ischua Valley Country Club, Allegany State Park, Letchworth State Park, Rushford Lake, Cuba Lake, and the Pat McGee Trail for hiking, biking, and snowmobiling. Approximately 25 minutes to Ellicottville and 1 hour 15 minutes to Buffalo. Due to the condition of the structure, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless agreement prior to entry. Property is being sold as-is. Total taxes $2200/year +/-

Key facts

• Borders ischua creek
• Rolling terrain
• 12.24 acre lot

Tags

• OVER 12 SURVEYED ACRES
• MIX OF MATURE HARDWOODS
• ROLLING TERRAIN
• QUALITY STAND OF RED PINE
• BORDERS ISCHUA CREEK
• STRONG WILDLIFE PRESENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#856 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Franklinville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #281 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.42%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,199
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 16.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $52,776
• Equity at exit: $53,883

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $136,464
• Equity at exit: $108,382

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14743

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,200/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $811

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $69,000 Active 1287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1287 chars)

    Secluded opportunity on a quiet dead-end road. This two-story frame home is situated on over 12 surveyed acres and offers excellent potential for a new build, recreational property, or investment. The existing structure is not considered salvageable and is best suited for removal. The land is the true highlight, featuring a mix of mature hardwoods, rolling terrain, and a quality stand of red pine. The property borders a back slough of Ischua Creek, a New York State stocked trout stream known for fishing and year-round outdoor recreation. The acreage provides privacy and multiple potential building sites, making it well-suited for a cabin, primary residence, or weekend retreat. Strong wildlife presence in the area adds to its appeal for hunting and outdoor use. Located near a variety of recreational amenities, including Campground Adventures (offering glamping and kayak rentals), Ischua Valley Country Club, Allegany State Park, Letchworth State Park, Rushford Lake, Cuba Lake, and the Pat McGee Trail for hiking, biking, and snowmobiling. Approximately 25 minutes to Ellicottville and 1 hour 15 minutes to Buffalo. Due to the condition of the structure, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless agreement prior to entry. Property is being sold as-is. Total taxes $2200/year +/-

16. 2025-12-26
    historical
17. 2025-06-26
    listed $69,000 Active
18. 2025-04-13
    historical
19. 2024-11-12
    price $90,000
20. 2024-10-13
    listed $100,000 Active
21. 2020-01-21
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,200
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$849
• After-tax cash flow: $3,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklinville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611490
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,110
• Composite: 49.0/100
• National rank: #2068
• State rank: #281 of 590 in NY

Livability — Franklinville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #16514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,095

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Current HPI: 321.4238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $69,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $69,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-04-13 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-13 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,200 · -38.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.