411 Station Rd · Stacyville, ME 04777

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily · 296 Days on market

Built 2000 0.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 4 bedroom home with large garage right on Route 11! Very well-kept home, nearby to snowmobile, ATV trails, Baxter State Park, and Katahdin Woods & Waters. Perfect for recreational use, single family home, etc. Come check it out!

Key facts

• Large garage
• Snowmobile trails
• Baxter state park

Tags

• LARGE GARAGE
• SNOWMOBILE TRAILS
• ATV TRAILS
• BAXTER STATE PARK
• KATAHDIN WOODS & WATERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount: $1,010 (2024)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Additional parking on gravel for 5–10 vehicles
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Built in 2000
• Construction: Vinyl siding and wood frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Open, level lot; Intown and rural setting; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Interior features: First-floor primary bedroom with bath; Partially furnished; 7 total rooms; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 89 (rural): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #136 of 185 in ME (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 440 units permitted in Penobscot County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Penobscot County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $33,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Station Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (-5%)	10mo	$32,500	$20	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $34,455
• Equity at exit: $76,439

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $103,169
• Equity at exit: $117,802

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04777

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 285 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 283 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 277 DOM
16. 2026-02-07
    status Active
17. 2026-01-21
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2025-08-26
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$83
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $2,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 89
• NCES district ID: 2314838
• Math proficiency: 30% —
• Reading proficiency: 45% —
• Median HH income: $36,317
• Composite: 33.62/100
• National rank: #10477
• State rank: #136 of 185 in ME

Livability — Stacyville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 503

Population outlook (Penobscot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,928 people
• By 2030: 146,386 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 135,952 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 123,864 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 97,825 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 77,196 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Polish 14% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Penobscot

• 2024 margin: R (+10.9) · D 43.6% · R 54.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: -10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.9 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+10.9 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-01-21 Contingent — MREIS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $170,000 MREIS