812 Corktree Rd #812 · Middle River, MD 21220

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1979 $175/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DISCOUNT PRICED FOR QUICK SALE. HOUSE IN GOOD CONDITION. LARGE ROOMS. FINISHED BASEMENT WITH FIREPLACE. WASHER/DRYER. FENCED YARD. COMMUNITY POOL. NEEDS CARPET AND PAINT. SELLER TO ASSIGN EXISTING CONTRACT OF SALE. SETTLEMENT BY SELLERS ATTORNEY TO OCCUR ON OR BEFORE NOVEMBER 15. SOLD AS-IS. SELLER MAKES NO REPAIRS. ALL INSPECTIONS FOR BUYER INFORMATION ONLY.

Key facts

• $175 HOA
• Built 1979
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below grade area reported as 600; Above-grade finished area reported as 1,220 (assessor); Below-grade finished area reported as 250 and unfinished below-grade area reported as 350; Year built and living area source reported from assessor
• HOA & community: Condo fee $175 monthly; Condo fee includes trash, water, lawn maintenance, management, and recreation facility; Community amenities include picnic area, outdoor pool, and playground/tot lots; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse (condominium); Condominium ownership
• Construction: Block foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Outbuilding(s); Play area; Shed; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace; Full basement with interior access; Partially finished basement; Enclosed outdoor living structure (patio/porch); Outbuilding(s) and play area on the property; Shed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,638
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,469
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,024/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $300	+0% $243	+5% $187	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $153	+0% $243	+5% $333	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $294	base $243	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
898 Manorgreen Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1895	$2,702	$1.43	2d	4	0.08mi
9899 Decatur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,700	$1.47	44d	1	0.51mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.69mi
9901 Langs Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,795	$1.89	44d	10	0.71mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	44d	1	0.72mi
70 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1620	$1,850	$1.14	24d	1	0.74mi
72 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,899	$1.12	24d	1	0.74mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	44d	1	0.77mi
10 Blackfoot Ct Middle River, MD	4.0	2.5	1596	$2,349	$1.47	44d	1	0.77mi
10 Blackfoot Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,299	$1.32	24d	1	0.77mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	24d	1	0.82mi
8 King Henry Cir Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,895	$1.87	44d	1	0.83mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	22d	1	0.85mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,900	$1.55	22d	1	0.88mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	22d	1	0.96mi
9206 Oswald Way Rosedale, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,018	$2.33	2d	22	1.03mi
5326 King Arthur Cir Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.03mi
8908 Golden Tree Ln Essex, MD	4.0	1.5	1466	$3,000	$2.05	44d	1	1.26mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	44d	1	1.34mi
386 Attenborough Dr Rosedale, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$2,709	$2.92	2d	21	1.37mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	44d	1	1.44mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-08
   status Active
4. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-30
   historical
6. 2026-03-20
   listed $199,900 Active
7. 2021-07-08
   soldstatus $166,700
8. 2007-10-19
   soldstatus $150,000 Sold 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   DISCOUNT PRICED FOR QUICK SALE. HOUSE IN GOOD CONDITION. LARGE ROOMS. FINISHED BASEMENT WITH FIREPLACE. WASHER/DRYER. FENCED YARD. COMMUNITY POOL. NEEDS CARPET AND PAINT. SELLER TO ASSIGN EXISTING CONTRACT OF SALE. SETTLEMENT BY SELLERS ATTORNEY TO OCCUR ON OR BEFORE NOVEMBER 15. SOLD AS-IS. SELLER MAKES NO REPAIRS. ALL INSPECTIONS FOR BUYER INFORMATION ONLY.

9. 2007-10-06
   historical 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   DISCOUNT PRICED FOR QUICK SALE. HOUSE IN GOOD CONDITION. LARGE ROOMS. FINISHED BASEMENT WITH FIREPLACE. WASHER/DRYER. FENCED YARD. COMMUNITY POOL. NEEDS CARPET AND PAINT. SELLER TO ASSIGN EXISTING CONTRACT OF SALE. SETTLEMENT BY SELLERS ATTORNEY TO OCCUR ON OR BEFORE NOVEMBER 15. SOLD AS-IS. SELLER MAKES NO REPAIRS. ALL INSPECTIONS FOR BUYER INFORMATION ONLY.

10. 2007-10-04
    listed $149,900 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    DISCOUNT PRICED FOR QUICK SALE. HOUSE IN GOOD CONDITION. LARGE ROOMS. FINISHED BASEMENT WITH FIREPLACE. WASHER/DRYER. FENCED YARD. COMMUNITY POOL. NEEDS CARPET AND PAINT. SELLER TO ASSIGN EXISTING CONTRACT OF SALE. SETTLEMENT BY SELLERS ATTORNEY TO OCCUR ON OR BEFORE NOVEMBER 15. SOLD AS-IS. SELLER MAKES NO REPAIRS. ALL INSPECTIONS FOR BUYER INFORMATION ONLY.

11. 2002-02-25
    soldstatus $82,000
12. 2002-02-15
    soldstatus $82,000
13. 2002-01-02
    historical
14. 2001-12-06
    listed $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,024
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$35
• After-tax cash flow: $2,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+143.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $166,700 Public Records
• 2007-10-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MRIS
• 2007-10-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-10-04 Listed $149,900 MRIS
• 2002-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-15 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MRIS
• 2002-01-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-12-06 Listed $82,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,024 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.