408 Bailey Rd · Madison, NC 27025

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1957 0.88 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is eligible under The Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 7/8/26. This home has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. There is a staircase up to second floor area that is unfinished. New Roof. .. Galley kitchen that is open to dining room area. Laundry room has tile flooring and leads to side deck. Detached garage/storage or shop and sits on an . 88 acre lot. Bring your vision to this one!! This property is SOLD "AS-IS". Schedule your showing today!!

Key facts

• 0.88 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a public maintained road; Lot dimensions: 99 x 252 x 98 x 90 x 201; Lot area approximately 0.88 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric water heater
• Home design: House (stick/site built); One and one-half stories; Built in 1957; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Crawl space foundation; One fireplace in the living room
• Exterior features: Garden; Natural land

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms count not provided
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Cooling: Other; Heating fuel: Electric
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Attic partially floored with permanent stairs; See remarks for additional interior details
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Laundry located in the basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.9% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#158 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Rockingham County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #120 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,260
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,767
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27025

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $272	+0% $238	+5% $205	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $188	+0% $238	+5% $289	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $269	base $238	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 461-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $965
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$232
• After-tax cash flow: $2,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703990
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,914
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5673
• State rank: #120 of 178 in NC

Livability — Madison

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #8684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,333

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,103 people
• By 2030: 83,763 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 76,082 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 68,106 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 52,531 · -39.7%
• By 2100: 39,871 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.7% · R 67.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.83%
• Current HPI: 240.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $119,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $149,000 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,034 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.