43557 W Sagebrush Trl · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$250,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2002 8,026 sqft lot $124/sqft · 28% below area Est $347k · 28% under $182/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice home! Come take a look today - You can purchase this home for as little as 3% down with Home Path Financing. Offered strictly AS-IS - No SPDS or CLUE.

Key facts

• 8,026 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $182.21; HOA fee includes cable TV

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Rear and front sprinklers; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-351/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maricopa Elementary School (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #631 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 733 students, 65% FRL); Maricopa Wells Middle School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #143 of 218 statewide, top 66%, 934 students, 57% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $250k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,839 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,808
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -27.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44188 W Cydnee Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,917 (-5%)	1mo	$287,000	$150	68
43522 W Snow Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,228 (+11%)	1mo	$345,000	$155	66
20743 N Enchantment Pass	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,057 (+2%)	2mo	$500,000	$243	64
43843 W Roth Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-6%)	1mo	$385,000	$204	59
20626 N Madison Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,252 (+12%)	1mo	$475,000	$211	57
43302 W Bunker Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,092 (+4%)	2mo	$430,000	$206	57
44175 W Snow Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,309 (+15%)	0mo	$299,000	$129	55
22392 N Balboa Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-3%)	0mo	$375,000	$192	54
43874 W Bailey Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (-10%)	2mo	$379,000	$208	47
44469 W Canyon Creek Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,207 (+10%)	2mo	$415,000	$188	46
43423 W Venture Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,218 (+10%)	2mo	$370,000	$167	40
44729 W Alamendras St	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,754 (-13%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-22,028
• Equity at exit: $61,697

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,349
• Equity at exit: $65,944

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 858
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,026/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $244,829

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $41	+0% $-29	+5% $-100	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-116	+0% $-29	+5% $58	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $34	base $-29	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43697 W Sagebrush Trl Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1981	$1,600	$0.81	26d	1	0.08mi
21054 N Sansom Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	2.0	2278	$2,200	$0.97	46d	1	0.22mi
43207 W Lindgren Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,699	$0.89	46d	1	0.25mi
21061 N Bustos Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,749	$0.92	46d	1	0.29mi
21552 N Duncan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,825	$1.07	1d	1	0.29mi
21563 N Greenway Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,200	$1.97	1d	1	0.33mi
43878 W Wade Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,750	$1.04	5d	1	0.34mi
43854 W Cahill Dr Unit 1545679P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,258	$1.34	17d	1	0.37mi
20793 N Marquez Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,550	$1.08	46d	1	0.41mi
21047 N Alma Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,995	$1.23	46d	1	0.43mi
44212 W Cydnee Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,700	$1.18	46d	1	0.46mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2216	$2,100	$0.95	13d	1	0.48mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2215	$2,200	$0.99	46d	1	0.48mi
43332 W Griffis Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2235	$4,200	$1.88	46d	1	0.52mi
43849 W Kramer Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,895	$1.01	19d	1	0.53mi
19696 N Madison Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2219	$3,400	$1.53	26d	1	0.53mi
44304 W Vineyard St Maricopa, AZ	5.0	2.5	2561	$1,995	$0.78	17d	1	0.55mi
20544 N Alma Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2301	$2,200	$0.96	7d	1	0.63mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	22d	1	0.67mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	46d	1	0.67mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	26d	1	0.67mi
44812 W Paraiso Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,595	$1.13	6d	1	0.77mi
44456 W Eddie Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	46d	1	0.78mi
22165 N Celtic Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2363	$2,295	$0.97	0d	1	0.78mi
42376 W Chisholm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2312	$2,000	$0.87	7d	1	0.80mi
43531 W Oster Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	2494	$1,900	$0.76	26d	1	0.80mi
43368 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,889	$0.86	46d	1	0.87mi
22156 N Sunset Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,100	$0.99	0d	1	0.87mi
22641 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2169	$1,699	$0.78	46d	1	0.87mi
42187 W Chisholm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2312	$5,500	$2.38	46d	1	0.90mi
44415 W Knauss Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2454	$1,895	$0.77	46d	1	0.90mi
43194 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,850	$0.96	17d	1	0.91mi
43914 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$2,070	$0.95	46d	1	0.91mi
21619 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1938	$3,500	$1.81	5d	1	0.95mi
44216 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2604	$1,895	$0.73	46d	1	0.95mi
44151 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2604	$2,350	$0.90	20d	1	0.96mi
43223 W Neely Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2223	$2,900	$1.30	19d	1	0.96mi
44425 W Oster Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,200	$0.88	7d	1	0.99mi
45023 W Miramar Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1653	$3,000	$1.81	46d	1	1.01mi
44171 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	0d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $250,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $270,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $270,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $290,000 Active 831-char remark
19. 2010-05-07
    soldstatus $77,000 Closed 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Nice home! Come take a look today - You can purchase this home for as little as 3% down with Home Path Financing. Offered strictly AS-IS - No SPDS or CLUE.

20. 2010-03-15
    historical 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Nice home! Come take a look today - You can purchase this home for as little as 3% down with Home Path Financing. Offered strictly AS-IS - No SPDS or CLUE.

21. 2009-12-24
    listed $77,000 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Nice home! Come take a look today - You can purchase this home for as little as 3% down with Home Path Financing. Offered strictly AS-IS - No SPDS or CLUE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,026
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+224.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $270,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2010-05-07 Sold (MLS) $77,000 ARMLS
• 2010-03-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-12-24 Listed $77,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,026 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.